Taiwan (12/14)

Three months ago, when Taiwan was last the subject of one of our IIF discussions, we had as our guest Dr. Lung-chu Chen, and almost all of our time was spent talking about whether Taiwan should be admitted to the United Nations. This meant that a large number of important issues were left on the table, including: relations between Taiwan and the Mainland and cross-strait developments in the Chen Administration; Taiwan's defense budget and U.S. arms sales to Taiwan; the EU arms embargo against the PRC; revision of Taiwan's constitution; abolition of the National Unification Council and guidelines; the PRC's Anti-Secession Law; the corruption scandals affecting the DPP; visits to the PRC by KMT party members; and Taiwan's entry into the WHO and related health issues. We decided to invite Director General R.C. Wu of Taipei Economic and Cultural Office in Atlanta to come at some future date and discuss some ot these issues with us.

Last weekend, in mayoral elections Taiwan's two largest cities, Kaohsiung and Taipei, "voters failed to give the stinging rebuke many expected to the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) of President Chen Shui-bian; although the DPP's candidate lost the mayorship of Taipei to the opposition Kuomintang (KMT), the ruling party narrowly held on to Kaohsiung." The occasion of this election seemed the perfect opportunity for Director Wu's visit, and he has graciously accepted our invitation to join us Thursday evening.

More! TECO offered to provide food for us after our meeting. We thought this was extremely generous and accepted, expecting perhaps egg rolls, dumplings, and perhaps a few other finger foods. Wrong! Nicole Denison of TECO e-mailed me about the arrangements, "the menu looks like this: green beans with garlic sauce, eggplant with black bean sauce, chinese broccoli, pot stickers, vegetable egg rolls, roast duck, veg fried rice, and red bean sesame balls for desert. I will bring all plates, cups and utensils along with a sweet aloe juice to drink." It was clear TECO is planning to provide a full meal, and quite a good one!

Here is some background information for the discussion:

The Congressional Research has done three recent reports on Taiwan. Here are the links:

Taiwan: Recent Developments and U.S. Policy Choices 10-09-06

Taiwan-U.S. Political Relations: New Strains and Changes

Taiwan: Major U.S. Arms Sales Since 1990

Here is a link to the Country Briefing on Taiwan from The Economist, which provides links to recent articles:

Country Briefing: Taiwan

And here are a few recent articles from the International Herald Tribune:

http://www.iht.com/bin/print.php?id=3815777

http://www.iht.com/bin/print.php?id=3829502

http://www.iht.com/bin/print.php?id=3831320

http://www.iht.com/bin/print.php?id=3842453

http://www.iht.com/bin/print.php?id=3841517

http://www.iht.com/bin/print.php?id=3844426

http://www.iht.com/bin/print.php?id=3854637

Iraq: Plan B (12/7)

The long awaited report of the Iraq Study Group is scheduled to be released Wednesday, and of course there have been leaks, and speculation about the commission's findings and recommendations. In addition, there have been numerous other plans proposed about what to do next in Iraq. So we decided to do a little speculating and proposing of our own, and we chose "Plan B: What Next in Iraq?" as the topic for this Thursday's IIF discussion.

As usual, I am sending along some background information:

Here are a couple of articles from The Washington Post, speculating about what the commission may recommend:

Study Group to Call for Pullback

Iraq Plan Strives To Bridge Divide

The Wall Street Journal published these two articles about some of the different plans being proposed, and who is supporting them:

Commentary: Plan B

Commentary: A Plethora of Plans About What's Next

Here is a Backgrounder from the Council on Foreign Relations that has links to a number of good articles:

'Plan B' Scenarios in Iraq

Senator Joseph Biden and Leslie Gelb, the president emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations, have proposed a plan for dividing Iraq into three ethnic federations. Here are the plan and some articles Biden and Gelb have written promoting it:

Biden-Gelb Plan for Iraq

Iraq: A Way Forward

Unity Through Autonomy in Iraq

A Plan to Hold Iraq Together

The Minimum Necessary

The Pentagon has also been considering several options for Iraq. Here are stories about those plans from The Washington Post, CBS, and The Washington Times:

Pentagon May Suggest Short-Term Buildup Leading to Iraq Exit

Pentagon Reviewing Three Plans for Iraq

Joint Chiefs oppose Iraq pullout

Study group to echo Bush

I have attached a transcript of a portion of Meet the Press from Sunday before last, in which Rep. Duncan Hunter, Chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, proposes yet another option.

And then we learned in just this past week that shortly before he resigned as Secretary of Defense, Donald Rumsfeld "submitted a classified memo to the White House that acknowledged that the Bush administration’s strategy in Iraq was not working and called for a major course correction." Here are Rumsfeld's memo and stories about it from The New York Times and The Washington Post:

Rumsfeld’s Memo of Options for Iraq War

Rumsfeld Memo Proposed ‘Major Adjustment’ in Iraq

Rumsfeld Called for Change in War Plan

Finally, from the July/August issue Foreign Affairs, here are a Roundtable on Iraq, featuring Stephen Biddle, Larry Diamond, James Dobbins, Leslie Gelb, and Chaim Kaufmann, and responses from Christopher Hitchens, Fred Kaplan, Kevin Drum, and Marc Lynch that the magazine posted on its website:

What to Do in Iraq: A Roundtable

Responses to "What to Do in Iraq"

So, keep an eye out for the release of the Iraq Survey Group's report Wednesday. It will in all likelihood be to long to read in its entirety before Thursday evening's discussion, but there will probably be an executive summary that will give us a good idea what they are recommending. Then come join us at Villa for our discussion, and will try to sort out what the report means and what its effect will be, and we will consider some of the other options that have been proposed. See you then.