Thursday, January 25, 2007

French Elections (1/25)

This coming Thursday will be our last IIF discussion at Villa International for a couple of months. As we do each year at about this time, we will go our separate ways while our members participate in Great Decisions discussion groups all across the Metro Atlanta area. If you still have not signed up for a Great Decisions group, I have attached a flyer with information about Great Decisions so that you can find a group convenient to you. We will re-convene at Villa for our regular IIF discussions beginning Thursday, April 5.

The topic for our discussion this Thursday, January 23, will be regime change in western Europe - the presidential election in France. The election is scheduled for April 22. If no candidate receives more than 50 per cent of all ballots cast (and this is almost certain to be the case), a runoff will take place on May 6.

The major contenders are likely to be Nicholas Sarkozy, currently Minister of the Interior, running as the candidate of the center-right UMP party, and Ségolène Royal, the candidate of the Socialist Party, who is seeking to become France's first female president. Someone else to keep an eye on is the far right nationalist politician Jean-Marie Le Pen, a perennial candidate, who, in a stunning upset, ran second in the last election in 2002, only to lose in a landslide to Jacques Chirac in the runoff. Le Pen most recently gained attention for claiming to have predicted the urban riots of October-November 2005, but he reportedly has been having difficulty obtaining the 500 signatures of elected officials required to get on the ballot. There have even been rumors that President Chirac is considering running for a third term; but although there is nothing in the French constitution to prohibit it, this seems unlikely, given Chirac's poor health and his loss of popularity with the voters.

In addition to the candidates, our discussion will cover the issues that are expected to be raised in the election, the implications for our relations with France, and the likely effect on our own foreign policy.

As usual, I am sending along some background information:
For background on the election, this article from Angus Reid Global Monitor is excellent:
France - Royal, Sarkozy ready to battle

This article from the free online encyclopedia, Wikipedia, deals with the candidates and the issues:
French presidential election, 2007

And here are articles on some of the potential candidates:
Nicolas Sarkozy
Ségolène Royal
Jean-Marie Le Pen
Jacques Chirac

From The Economist, here are a Backgrounder on France's Politics and a few recent articles about the election:
Backgrounder: France's Politics
What France needs
France's Socialists choose their candidate
France's presidential candidates
Many runners for April in Paris
Nicolas Sarkozy faces a hard slog to become president

This Associated Press article indicates that voters may be somewhat apathetic:
Poll shows French voters not enthusiastic about Sarkozy-Royal choice in presidential election

This report from the Congressional Research Service may give some idea how U.S. relations with France could be affected:
France: Factors Shaping Foreign Policy
Issues in U.S.-French Relations May 19, 2006

This article from The Washington Post is from the time of the 2005 urban riots:
The Other France, Separate and Unhappy

This article originally appeared in the September/October issue of Foreign Affairs:
France and Its Muslims

In addition, I am attaching the e-mail I sent out to the group as background for our discussion of the riots.

France is our ally, but a prickly one, to say the least, and the course their new leadership takes will affect our own. I hope you will join us at Villa Thursday evening to discuss this important election.

And don't forget to sign up for Great Decisions!



November, 2005, RE: Riots in France

Schadenfreude. The dictionary defines it as "enjoyment obtained from the troubles of others." I suspect that there are some Americans (no one in our group, to be sure) who have experienced schadenfreude upon hearing of the rioting taking place in France early last month. Triggered by the deaths of two North African teenagers were electrocuted in a Paris suburb while fleeing from the police. The riots quickly spread to other Paris suburbs, and then to the rest of the country, continuing for weeks, and escalating from rock throwing to car burning. Statements made about the rioters by the Interior Minister, Nicolas Sarkozy, were criticized, and apparently harmed his chances in the next election against the current Prime Minister, Dominique de Villepin. It has also been speculated that the unrest has given a boost to the fortunes of right wing leader Jean-Marie Le Pen and his opposition to immigration. David Reifenberger will lead this Thursday's discussion as we consider the causes of the rioting and the aftermath.

As usual, I am sending along some background information:

Here are a series of articles from The Economist (may req. subscription):
A wounded nation resorts to extreme measures
After two weeks of car-burning
An underclass rebellion
France's failure
Minority reports
After France's riots

The Wall Street Journal ran a large number of news articles and commentaries on the rioting. Here are the links: (req. subscription)
WSJ.com - Paris Riots Spread To Other French Cities
WSJ.com - Commentary: Paris Is Burning
WSJ.com - French minister Sarkozy stumbles over riots
WSJ.com - Commentary: Les Miserables
WSJ.com - Muslim Groups May Gain Strength From French Riots
WSJ.com - Commentary: Bonfire of the Vanities
WSJ.com - French Riots: An Islamic Watershed?
WSJ.com - Will French Riots Spread?
WSJ.com - Commentary: Our Immigrants, Their Immigrants
WSJ.com - France Authorizes Curfews As Riots Cast Doubt On Its Policing System
WSJ.com - Commentary: When Suburbs Burn
WSJ.com - The Birth of Organized Islam
WSJ.com - Commentary: Eyes Wide Shut
WSJ.com - Racism Is the Fuel Lighting Up Gallic Skies
WSJ.com - The Shame of the Cities: French Unrest Finds A Home in Projects
WSJ.com - While the Burbs Are Burning, Paris Is Steaming
WSJ.com - In France, a Call for Inclusion
WSJ.com - Commentary: French Lessons
WSJ.com - France Crackdown Sparks Criticism
WSJ.com - Commentary: Burning Down The House In FranceLand
WSJ.com - Commentary: The Bonfire of the Vanities
WSJ.com - Modern Islam's European Stage
WSJ.com - Commentary: The Islamist Battleground
WSJ.com - France returns to normal but maintains state of emergency
WSJ.com - Commentary: Kiss the Melting Pot Goodbye
WSJ.com - Opinion: Back in Business
WSJ.com - Marseille Seeks Calm by Blurring Church-State Line
WSJ.com - France Announces Tightening Of Immigration Controls

Finally, here are some news stories from the International Herald Tribune (free access):
3 in rioting in suburb of Paris get jail terms
Suburban unrest spreads in France
Violence spreads to more troubled Paris suburbs
Chirac urges calm as suburban riots spread
More arson, but clashes recede in Paris suburbs
Violence spreads beyond Paris
Chirac vows arrests and punishment for rioters
France to allow local curfews
For police on front line, a tough, and scary, task
Blogs and text messages spread call to violence
A despairing cry for change
Comments from readers on the unrest in France
Chirac admits failure on social problems
The French evolution: Stones to cars
French police see violence waning
French state of emergency may be extended by 3 months
Immigrant parents pressured in France
Sarkozy ratchets up his challenge to Chirac

posted by IIF BlogMeister @ 12:02 PM   2 comments

Wednesday, January 17, 2007

Engaging Iran and Syria (1/18)

There has been much controversy of late about whether the U.S. should engage Iran and Syria, or continue to refuse to negotiate directly with these two problematic countries. That will be the subject of this week's IIF discussion.
And to guide our deliberations, we are fortunate to have once again John H. Kelly, a man intimately familiar with both countries, having served as U.S. Ambassador to Lebanon during the Reagan administration, and as Undersecretary of State for Near East and South Asian Affairs under Bush 41. I have attached a brief bio.
As usual, I am sending along some background information:
Ambassador Kelly sent me this link to the UN Security Council Resolution imposing sanctions on Iran, which he states is "the definitive text and commentary":
Here are four articles from The Wall Street Journal:

Here is an op/ed piece by David Ignatius from The Washington Post:

The Price of Iran's Help

This article originally appeared last month in the Financial Times:
From The Economist, here are Backgrounders on both Iran and Syria, with links to articles:
Here are links to items from the Council on Foreign Relations web site:
And here are links to articles on both countries from the International Crisis Group:
Here is an article from the November/December issue of Foreign Affairs:
Here is an article that originally appeared in Al Hayat:
This article originally appeared in the September/October issue of Foreign Affairs:
This article on Iran, by Seymour Hersh, is from the November 27 issue of The New Yorker:

Finally, here is an article that broadens the discussion, by Richard Haas, President of the Council on Foreign Relations:

The New Middle East

I, for one, am extremely interested in hearing Ambassador Kelly's views about how we should be dealing with Iran and Syria. Come join us at Villa on Thursday evening as we all try to get a better insight into this troubled area of the world.


Our discussion this coming Thursday will be about Iran and Syria, and for starters, I am forwarding the e-mail I sent out when we discussed Iran a couple of months ago and the most recent Congressional Research Service reports I could find on Iran and Syria:

----- Original Message -----
From: Charles R. Hubert
To: International_Issues_Forum
Sent: Wednesday, November 01, 2006 7:27 PM
Subject: IIF; Articles on Iran

Our IIF discussion this Thursday will be about Iran, and our moderator will be a relative newcomer to our group, Wayne Gross. Although there have been a number of recent developments, the issues have changed little since early this year; so I am forwarding the e-mail I sent out when we talked about Iran as a part of the Great Decisions 2006 discussion series (see below). I am also sending along some additional background information:

From The Economist, here are a Backgrounder and a link to recent articles on Iran:
Backgrounder: Iran Iran: Recent Articles

Here is a recent report on Iran from the Congressional Research Service:
Iran: U.S. Concerns and Policy Responses 08-25-06

From The NewsHour on PBS, here is an interview in which Iran's Ambassador to the United Nations defends his country's right to a civilian nuclear program:
NEWAMAKER: Javad Zarif

Here is an op/ed piece that appeared last spring in The Wall Street Journal:
Facing Down Iran

Here is a link to articles dealing with Iran from the Council on Foreign Relations:
Recent Publications: Iran

From the Foreign Policy Association web site, here are a link to several useful items and a quiz about Iran:
U.S. & Iran: Online Resources QUIZ: Dealing with Iran

Finally, I am including a link to something I think many of you will find useful or interesting: the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons:
http://www.iaea.org/Publications/Documents/Infcircs/Others/infcirc140.pdf

Relations with Iran remain an important and difficult aspect of U.S. foreign policy. I hope you will join us at Villa this Thursday evening as we discuss a subject that should be of interest to us all.
----- Original Message -----
From: Charles R. Hubert
To: Evening at Emory/Great Decisions
Sent: Wednesday, February 15, 2006 7:27 PM
Subject: Great Decisions 2006; Articles on Iran

Our topic for the second discussion in this Great Decisions series will be "Dealing with Iran." Issues will include: Iran's nuclear program; its links to a number of international terrorist groups, most noticeably Hezbollah; its involvement in post-war Iraq; political reform in the country; and the possibility of the resumption of diplomatic relations with the U.S. I am sending along some background material.

To begin with, here are some items that attempt to explain Iran's two-tiered political system: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/spl/hi/middle_east/03/iran_power/html/default.stm
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/middle_east/iran/structure.html http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran#Politics

Here are a couple of timelines of events in Iran's nuclear program:
Iran's Nuclear Ambitions: Chronology of Key Events
Timeline: Iran's Nuclear Development

Here is a speech given last November at Johns Hopkins University's Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies by R. Nicholas Burns, U.S. Under-Secretary for Political Affairs:
U.S. Policy Toward Iran

Here is President Bush's statement on the Iranian election: http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2005/06/print/20050616.html

Here is a link to an article from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, which was referred to in the Great Decisions Briefing Book:
Changing Iran's Nuclear Interests

Here are links to a few of the articles listed at the end of this section of the Briefing Book:
Iran's Nuclear File: The Uncertain Endgame
Iran: What Does Ahmadi-Nejad's Victory Mean?
The Conservative Wave Rolls On

Here are two items that were sent to me by Jason DeJoannis, who moderates the Tuesday Great Decisions group at Evening at Emory:

Terry Gross interview with Joseph Cirincione, the director for non-proliferation at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, on NPR's Fresh Air:
The New Brinksmanship: Iran's Nuclear Threat

Article by Laura Secor from the November 21 issue of The New Yorker:
FUGITIVES: Young Iranians Confront the Collapse of the Reform Movement

From The Economist, here are a Backgrounder and a link to recent articles on Iran: http://www.economist.com/research/backgrounders/displaybackgrounder.cfm?bg=998452 http://www.economist.com/countries/Iran/fromtheeconomist.cfm

http://www.emailthis.clickability.com/et/emailThis?clickMap=viewThis&etMailToID=1921453160

Here are a few recent items from several newspapers and magazines: http://www.iht.com/bin/print_ipub.php?file=/articles/2006/01/24/opinion/edleverett.php http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/01/17/AR2006011700893_pf.html http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/01/31/AR2006013100233_pf.html http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/02/07/AR2006020702126_pf.html http://www.weeklystandard.com/Utilities/printer_preview.asp?idArticle=6585&R=EB38F5C7 http://www.emailthis.clickability.com/et/emailThis?clickMap=viewThis&etMailToID=1202369281 http://www.emailthis.clickability.com/et/emailThis?clickMap=viewThis&etMailToID=970783718 http://www.emailthis.clickability.com/et/emailThis?clickMap=viewThis&etMailToID=1202369281 http://www.emailthis.clickability.com/et/emailThis?clickMap=viewThis&etMailToID=1908511273

And finally, if you still haven't got enough, here are three sites with links to numerous articles on Iran: http://www.iranfocus.com/modules/news/ http://www.iranpressnews.com/english/
http://news.yahoo.com/fc?tmpl=fc&cid=34&in=world&cat=iran

posted by IIF BlogMeister @ 9:19 AM   0 comments

Friday, January 12, 2007

Jimmy Carter's New Book: Palestine: Peace Not Apartheid (1/11)

Ever since its publication this past November, former President Jimmy Carter's new book, Palestine: Peace Not Apartheid, has been the subject of controversy and criticism, much of it about the title, itself. This Thursday evening, we will see for ourselves what all the fuss is about. We have chosen the book, and the reaction to it, as the subject of this week's IIF discussion.

As usual, I am sending along some background information:

At about the time of the book's publication, Norman Finkelstein, an author and a professor of political science at DePaul University in Chicago, provided these excerpts:
Peace Not Apartheid: Jimmy Carter's Roadmap
This should be helpful to those of you who have not yet been able to read the entire book.

Shortly thereafter, this harshly critical op/ed piece by Alan Dershowitz was published in The New York Sun:
The World According to Carter

In late November, Carter discussed his book at an event in Virginia, in the D.C. area. Here is a transcript of his remarks:
Palestine: Peace Not Apartheid...Jimmy Carter In His Own Words

The criticism continued to mount:
Carter Book on Israel 'Apartheid' Sparks Bitter Debate

The Simon Wiesenthal Center in Los Angeles issued a statement condemning the book as completely lacking objectivity:
SWC Criticizes President Carter's Bias Towards Israel

Professor Kenneth Stein of Emory University, the first Executive Director of the Carter Center, severed his long-term association with the Center over the book, which he characterized as "replete with factual errors, copied materials not cited, superficialities, glaring omissions, and simply invented segments":
Historian Severs Ties with Carter Center Over Distorted Book
See also the website of Emory University's Institute for the Study of Modern Israel (www.ismi.emory.edu) for Professor Ken Stein's in-depth assessment of the Carter book.

Dennis Ross, envoy to the Middle East in the Clinton administration, commenting on charges that Carter had used maps from Ross's book, The Missing Peace, without permission or attribution, explained that he was more concerned that the maps were used in a misleading way:
Don't Play With Maps

This critical review by Jeff Goldberg, a staff writer at The New Yorker was published in The Washington Post:
What Would Jimmy Do?

Additional opinion pieces were penned in The Washington Post by Michael Kinsley and in The National Review by Rich Lowry:
It's Not Apartheid
Creepy Carter: Ex-presidential madness

Carter answered his critics in interviews on a number of television programs. Here is one from the NewsHour on PBS:
Newsmaker Interview | Jimmy Carter

This op/ed piece by Carter was originally published in the Los Angeles Times:
Speaking frankly about Israel and Palestine

Here is a transcript of an interview Carter did with Robbie Brown, of The Wheel, Emory University's student newspaper:
President Defends New Book Against Charges of Bias, Falsehood

And the Carter Center issued this letter about the book to the Jewish community:
Jimmy Carter Issues Letter to Jewish Community on Palestine Peace Not Apartheid
Last Sunday The New York Times: published this "long-awaited and largely critical review of the book written by Times Deputy Foreign Editor Ethan Bronner":
Jews, Arabs and Jimmy Carter

Here is a transcript of a debate about the book that aired Monday on Democracy Now:
Debate: Norman Finkelstein vs. Gil Troy On Jimmy Carter's Controversial Book "Palestine: Peace Not Apartheid"

Here are two positive articles on Carter's book, from The Nation:
Get Carter
Hurricane Carter

Carter's Arab Financiers

This article by Jay Bookman originally appeared in the Atlanta Journal-Constitution:
Anti-Semitism Label Confines Open Debate

Mass resignation from Carter Center

posted by IIF BlogMeister @ 6:37 AM   1 comments

Thursday, January 04, 2007

Afghanistan and the Resurgent Taliban (1/4/07)

It has now been more than five years since the U.S.-led invasion of Afghanistan and the overthrow of the Taliban, and much has been accomplished in that time. A new constitution was written and adopted, surprisingly high percentage of the people turned out for elections, and a democratically elected government was installed. There have been improvements in the construction of paved roads, in access to health care, in education, and in the status of women and girls.

Unfortunately, however, substantial problems remain. Control by President Hamid Karzai's government is tentative, at best, outside the capital, Kabul. The parliament is virtually dysfunctional, and numbers warlords and drug kingpins among its members. NATO forces, in their first deployment outside Europe, are having difficulty with the resurgent Taliban; insurgents take refuge across the border in Pakistan. Opium poppy cultivation has reached an all-time high, and the drug trade is on the increase. Security problems and lack of funds have slowed reconstruction efforts considerably. And the country's economy remains backward; Afghanistan is one of the world's poorest nations. There is concern that the country could collapse into chaos and become once again a "failed state."

All of these issues, Afghanistan's successes and its failures, will be the subject of this Thursday's IIF discussion. We will be privileged to have as our guest, to help guide our discussion, Dr. Rashid Naim from the Department of Political Science at Georgia State.

As usual, I am sending along some background information:

Here is an article from The Wall Street Journal that attempts to describe the good and the bad about Afghanistan's recent history:

Hot off the presses, here is an article from the current issue of Foreign Affairs:
Saving Afghanistan by Barnett R. Rubin

I thought these three items from the Council on Foreign Relations web site were all quite informative, and all contain links to additional articles:

Here is a link to the executive summary of a report from the International Crisis Group, which contains a link to the full report:

Also from the ICG, here is a report on the history of the conflict in Afghanistan

Here are several reports on different aspects of the situation in Afghanistan from the Congressional Research Service:

From The Economist, here are two Backgrounders and a link to recent articles on Afghanistan:
Finally, here is an op/ed piece by Max Boot that originally appeared in the Los Angeles Times, which accurately sums up concerns about the situation in Afghanistan:
Get Serious About Afghanistan

So join us Thursday evening at Villa for the first IIF discussion of the new year. Afghanistan, I fear, will be appearing in the news more frequently in the coming months, and this is a good chance to get some good information on the conflict there. And come party with us on Saturday!

posted by IIF BlogMeister @ 7:36 AM   33 comments

Friday, December 15, 2006

Taiwan (12/14)

Three months ago, when Taiwan was last the subject of one of our IIF discussions, we had as our guest Dr. Lung-chu Chen, and almost all of our time was spent talking about whether Taiwan should be admitted to the United Nations. This meant that a large number of important issues were left on the table, including: relations between Taiwan and the Mainland and cross-strait developments in the Chen Administration; Taiwan's defense budget and U.S. arms sales to Taiwan; the EU arms embargo against the PRC; revision of Taiwan's constitution; abolition of the National Unification Council and guidelines; the PRC's Anti-Secession Law; the corruption scandals affecting the DPP; visits to the PRC by KMT party members; and Taiwan's entry into the WHO and related health issues. We decided to invite Director General R.C. Wu of Taipei Economic and Cultural Office in Atlanta to come at some future date and discuss some ot these issues with us.
Last weekend, in mayoral elections Taiwan's two largest cities, Kaohsiung and Taipei, "voters failed to give the stinging rebuke many expected to the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) of President Chen Shui-bian; although the DPP's candidate lost the mayorship of Taipei to the opposition Kuomintang (KMT), the ruling party narrowly held on to Kaohsiung." The occasion of this election seemed the perfect opportunity for Director Wu's visit, and he has graciously accepted our invitation to join us Thursday evening.
More! TECO offered to provide food for us after our meeting. We thought this was extremely generous and accepted, expecting perhaps egg rolls, dumplings, and perhaps a few other finger foods. Wrong! Nicole Denison of TECO e-mailed me about the arrangements, "the menu looks like this: green beans with garlic sauce, eggplant with black bean sauce, chinese broccoli, pot stickers, vegetable egg rolls, roast duck, veg fried rice, and red bean sesame balls for desert. I will bring all plates, cups and utensils along with a sweet aloe juice to drink." It was clear TECO is planning to provide a full meal, and quite a good one!
Here is some background information for the discussion:
The Congressional Research has done three recent reports on Taiwan. Here are the links:
And here are a few recent articles from the International Herald Tribune:

posted by IIF BlogMeister @ 7:08 AM   0 comments

Thursday, December 07, 2006

Iraq: Plan B (12/7)

The long awaited report of the Iraq Study Group is scheduled to be released Wednesday, and of course there have been leaks, and speculation about the commission's findings and recommendations. In addition, there have been numerous other plans proposed about what to do next in Iraq. So we decided to do a little speculating and proposing of our own, and we chose "Plan B: What Next in Iraq?" as the topic for this Thursday's IIF discussion.
As usual, I am sending along some background information:
Here are a couple of articles from The Washington Post, speculating about what the commission may recommend:
The Wall Street Journal published these two articles about some of the different plans being proposed, and who is supporting them:
Here is a Backgrounder from the Council on Foreign Relations that has links to a number of good articles:
Senator Joseph Biden and Leslie Gelb, the president emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations, have proposed a plan for dividing Iraq into three ethnic federations. Here are the plan and some articles Biden and Gelb have written promoting it:
The Pentagon has also been considering several options for Iraq. Here are stories about those plans from The Washington Post, CBS, and The Washington Times:
I have attached a transcript of a portion of Meet the Press from Sunday before last, in which Rep. Duncan Hunter, Chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, proposes yet another option.
And then we learned in just this past week that shortly before he resigned as Secretary of Defense, Donald Rumsfeld "submitted a classified memo to the White House that acknowledged that the Bush administration’s strategy in Iraq was not working and called for a major course correction." Here are Rumsfeld's memo and stories about it from The New York Times and The Washington Post:
Finally, from the July/August issue Foreign Affairs, here are a Roundtable on Iraq, featuring Stephen Biddle, Larry Diamond, James Dobbins, Leslie Gelb, and Chaim Kaufmann, and responses from Christopher Hitchens, Fred Kaplan, Kevin Drum, and Marc Lynch that the magazine posted on its website:
So, keep an eye out for the release of the Iraq Survey Group's report Wednesday. It will in all likelihood be to long to read in its entirety before Thursday evening's discussion, but there will probably be an executive summary that will give us a good idea what they are recommending. Then come join us at Villa for our discussion, and will try to sort out what the report means and what its effect will be, and we will consider some of the other options that have been proposed. See you then.

posted by IIF BlogMeister @ 9:35 AM   0 comments

Friday, November 10, 2006

The Effect of Midterm Elections on Foreign Policy (11/16)

We intend to consider the ramifications of the changes in leadership throughout the Congress and at the Defense Department with respect to the making of US foreign policy - Rumsfeld, Pelosi, the Iraq war, committees... What is the perception in Europe, China and elsewhere?

posted by IIF BlogMeister @ 7:16 AM   3 comments