French Elections (1/25)

This coming Thursday will be our last IIF discussion at Villa International for a couple of months. As we do each year at about this time, we will go our separate ways while our members participate in Great Decisions discussion groups all across the Metro Atlanta area. If you still have not signed up for a Great Decisions group, I have attached a flyer with information about Great Decisions so that you can find a group convenient to you. We will re-convene at Villa for our regular IIF discussions beginning Thursday, April 5.

The topic for our discussion this Thursday, January 23, will be regime change in western Europe - the presidential election in France. The election is scheduled for April 22. If no candidate receives more than 50 per cent of all ballots cast (and this is almost certain to be the case), a runoff will take place on May 6.

The major contenders are likely to be Nicholas Sarkozy, currently Minister of the Interior, running as the candidate of the center-right UMP party, and Ségolène Royal, the candidate of the Socialist Party, who is seeking to become France's first female president. Someone else to keep an eye on is the far right nationalist politician Jean-Marie Le Pen, a perennial candidate, who, in a stunning upset, ran second in the last election in 2002, only to lose in a landslide to Jacques Chirac in the runoff. Le Pen most recently gained attention for claiming to have predicted the urban riots of October-November 2005, but he reportedly has been having difficulty obtaining the 500 signatures of elected officials required to get on the ballot. There have even been rumors that President Chirac is considering running for a third term; but although there is nothing in the French constitution to prohibit it, this seems unlikely, given Chirac's poor health and his loss of popularity with the voters.

In addition to the candidates, our discussion will cover the issues that are expected to be raised in the election, the implications for our relations with France, and the likely effect on our own foreign policy.

As usual, I am sending along some background information:
For background on the election, this article from Angus Reid Global Monitor is excellent:

France - Royal, Sarkozy ready to battle

This article from the free online encyclopedia, Wikipedia, deals with the candidates and the issues:

French presidential election, 2007

And here are articles on some of the potential candidates:

Nicolas Sarkozy
Ségolène Royal
Jean-Marie Le Pen
Jacques Chirac

From The Economist, here are a Backgrounder on France's Politics and a few recent articles about the election:

Backgrounder: France's Politics
What France needs
France's Socialists choose their candidate
France's presidential candidates
Many runners for April in Paris
Nicolas Sarkozy faces a hard slog to become president

This Associated Press article indicates that voters may be somewhat apathetic:

Poll shows French voters not enthusiastic about Sarkozy-Royal choice in presidential election

This report from the Congressional Research Service may give some idea how U.S. relations with France could be affected:

France: Factors Shaping Foreign Policy
Issues in U.S.-French Relations May 19, 2006

This article from The Washington Post is from the time of the 2005 urban riots:

The Other France, Separate and Unhappy

This article originally appeared in the September/October issue of Foreign Affairs:

France and Its Muslims

In addition, I am attaching the e-mail I sent out to the group as background for our discussion of the riots.

France is our ally, but a prickly one, to say the least, and the course their new leadership takes will affect our own. I hope you will join us at Villa Thursday evening to discuss this important election.

And don't forget to sign up for Great Decisions!

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November, 2005, RE: Riots in France

Schadenfreude. The dictionary defines it as "enjoyment obtained from the troubles of others." I suspect that there are some Americans (no one in our group, to be sure) who have experienced schadenfreude upon hearing of the rioting taking place in France early last month. Triggered by the deaths of two North African teenagers were electrocuted in a Paris suburb while fleeing from the police. The riots quickly spread to other Paris suburbs, and then to the rest of the country, continuing for weeks, and escalating from rock throwing to car burning. Statements made about the rioters by the Interior Minister, Nicolas Sarkozy, were criticized, and apparently harmed his chances in the next election against the current Prime Minister, Dominique de Villepin. It has also been speculated that the unrest has given a boost to the fortunes of right wing leader Jean-Marie Le Pen and his opposition to immigration. David Reifenberger will lead this Thursday's discussion as we consider the causes of the rioting and the aftermath.

As usual, I am sending along some background information:

Here are a series of articles from The Economist (may req. subscription):

A wounded nation resorts to extreme measures
After two weeks of car-burning
An underclass rebellion
France's failure
Minority reports
After France's riots

The Wall Street Journal ran a large number of news articles and commentaries on the rioting. Here are the links: (req. subscription)

WSJ.com - Paris Riots Spread To Other French Cities
WSJ.com - Commentary: Paris Is Burning
WSJ.com - French minister Sarkozy stumbles over riots
WSJ.com - Commentary: Les Miserables
WSJ.com - Muslim Groups May Gain Strength From French Riots
WSJ.com - Commentary: Bonfire of the Vanities
WSJ.com - French Riots: An Islamic Watershed?
WSJ.com - Will French Riots Spread?
WSJ.com - Commentary: Our Immigrants, Their Immigrants
WSJ.com - France Authorizes Curfews As Riots Cast Doubt On Its Policing System
WSJ.com - Commentary: When Suburbs Burn
WSJ.com - The Birth of Organized Islam
WSJ.com - Commentary: Eyes Wide Shut
WSJ.com - Racism Is the Fuel Lighting Up Gallic Skies
WSJ.com - The Shame of the Cities: French Unrest Finds A Home in Projects
WSJ.com - While the Burbs Are Burning, Paris Is Steaming
WSJ.com - In France, a Call for Inclusion
WSJ.com - Commentary: French Lessons
WSJ.com - France Crackdown Sparks Criticism
WSJ.com - Commentary: Burning Down The House In FranceLand
WSJ.com - Commentary: The Bonfire of the Vanities
WSJ.com - Modern Islam's European Stage
WSJ.com - Commentary: The Islamist Battleground
WSJ.com - France returns to normal but maintains state of emergency
WSJ.com - Commentary: Kiss the Melting Pot Goodbye
WSJ.com - Opinion: Back in Business
WSJ.com - Marseille Seeks Calm by Blurring Church-State Line
WSJ.com - France Announces Tightening Of Immigration Controls

Finally, here are some news stories from the International Herald Tribune (free access):

3 in rioting in suburb of Paris get jail terms
Suburban unrest spreads in France
Violence spreads to more troubled Paris suburbs
Chirac urges calm as suburban riots spread
More arson, but clashes recede in Paris suburbs
Violence spreads beyond Paris
Chirac vows arrests and punishment for rioters
France to allow local curfews
For police on front line, a tough, and scary, task
Blogs and text messages spread call to violence
A despairing cry for change
Comments from readers on the unrest in France
Chirac admits failure on social problems
The French evolution: Stones to cars
French police see violence waning
French state of emergency may be extended by 3 months
Immigrant parents pressured in France
Sarkozy ratchets up his challenge to Chirac