International Issues Forum

French Elections (1/25)

2007-01-25T12:02:00.000-08:00

This coming Thursday will be our last IIF discussion at Villa International for a couple of months. As we do each year at about this time, we will go our separate ways while our members participate in Great Decisions discussion groups all across the Metro Atlanta area. If you still have not signed up for a Great Decisions group, I have attached a flyer with information about Great Decisions so that you can find a group convenient to you. We will re-convene at Villa for our regular IIF discussions beginning Thursday, April 5.

The topic for our discussion this Thursday, January 23, will be regime change in western Europe - the presidential election in France. The election is scheduled for April 22. If no candidate receives more than 50 per cent of all ballots cast (and this is almost certain to be the case), a runoff will take place on May 6.

The major contenders are likely to be Nicholas Sarkozy, currently Minister of the Interior, running as the candidate of the center-right UMP party, and Ségolène Royal, the candidate of the Socialist Party, who is seeking to become France's first female president. Someone else to keep an eye on is the far right nationalist politician Jean-Marie Le Pen, a perennial candidate, who, in a stunning upset, ran second in the last election in 2002, only to lose in a landslide to Jacques Chirac in the runoff. Le Pen most recently gained attention for claiming to have predicted the urban riots of October-November 2005, but he reportedly has been having difficulty obtaining the 500 signatures of elected officials required to get on the ballot. There have even been rumors that President Chirac is considering running for a third term; but although there is nothing in the French constitution to prohibit it, this seems unlikely, given Chirac's poor health and his loss of popularity with the voters.

In addition to the candidates, our discussion will cover the issues that are expected to be raised in the election, the implications for our relations with France, and the likely effect on our own foreign policy.

As usual, I am sending along some background information:
For background on the election, this article from Angus Reid Global Monitor is excellent:

France - Royal, Sarkozy ready to battle

This article from the free online encyclopedia, Wikipedia, deals with the candidates and the issues:

French presidential election, 2007

And here are articles on some of the potential candidates:

Nicolas Sarkozy
Ségolène Royal
Jean-Marie Le Pen
Jacques Chirac

From The Economist, here are a Backgrounder on France's Politics and a few recent articles about the election:

Backgrounder: France's Politics
What France needs
France's Socialists choose their candidate
France's presidential candidates
Many runners for April in Paris
Nicolas Sarkozy faces a hard slog to become president

This Associated Press article indicates that voters may be somewhat apathetic:

Poll shows French voters not enthusiastic about Sarkozy-Royal choice in presidential election

This report from the Congressional Research Service may give some idea how U.S. relations with France could be affected:

France: Factors Shaping Foreign Policy
Issues in U.S.-French Relations May 19, 2006

This article from The Washington Post is from the time of the 2005 urban riots:

The Other France, Separate and Unhappy

This article originally appeared in the September/October issue of Foreign Affairs:

France and Its Muslims

In addition, I am attaching the e-mail I sent out to the group as background for our discussion of the riots.

France is our ally, but a prickly one, to say the least, and the course their new leadership takes will affect our own. I hope you will join us at Villa Thursday evening to discuss this important election.

And don't forget to sign up for Great Decisions!

November, 2005, RE: Riots in France

Schadenfreude. The dictionary defines it as "enjoyment obtained from the troubles of others." I suspect that there are some Americans (no one in our group, to be sure) who have experienced schadenfreude upon hearing of the rioting taking place in France early last month. Triggered by the deaths of two North African teenagers were electrocuted in a Paris suburb while fleeing from the police. The riots quickly spread to other Paris suburbs, and then to the rest of the country, continuing for weeks, and escalating from rock throwing to car burning. Statements made about the rioters by the Interior Minister, Nicolas Sarkozy, were criticized, and apparently harmed his chances in the next election against the current Prime Minister, Dominique de Villepin. It has also been speculated that the unrest has given a boost to the fortunes of right wing leader Jean-Marie Le Pen and his opposition to immigration. David Reifenberger will lead this Thursday's discussion as we consider the causes of the rioting and the aftermath.

As usual, I am sending along some background information:

Here are a series of articles from The Economist (may req. subscription):

A wounded nation resorts to extreme measures
After two weeks of car-burning
An underclass rebellion
France's failure
Minority reports
After France's riots

The Wall Street Journal ran a large number of news articles and commentaries on the rioting. Here are the links: (req. subscription)

WSJ.com - Paris Riots Spread To Other French Cities
WSJ.com - Commentary: Paris Is Burning
WSJ.com - French minister Sarkozy stumbles over riots
WSJ.com - Commentary: Les Miserables
WSJ.com - Muslim Groups May Gain Strength From French Riots
WSJ.com - Commentary: Bonfire of the Vanities
WSJ.com - French Riots: An Islamic Watershed?
WSJ.com - Will French Riots Spread?
WSJ.com - Commentary: Our Immigrants, Their Immigrants
WSJ.com - France Authorizes Curfews As Riots Cast Doubt On Its Policing System
WSJ.com - Commentary: When Suburbs Burn
WSJ.com - The Birth of Organized Islam
WSJ.com - Commentary: Eyes Wide Shut
WSJ.com - Racism Is the Fuel Lighting Up Gallic Skies
WSJ.com - The Shame of the Cities: French Unrest Finds A Home in Projects
WSJ.com - While the Burbs Are Burning, Paris Is Steaming
WSJ.com - In France, a Call for Inclusion
WSJ.com - Commentary: French Lessons
WSJ.com - France Crackdown Sparks Criticism
WSJ.com - Commentary: Burning Down The House In FranceLand
WSJ.com - Commentary: The Bonfire of the Vanities
WSJ.com - Modern Islam's European Stage
WSJ.com - Commentary: The Islamist Battleground
WSJ.com - France returns to normal but maintains state of emergency
WSJ.com - Commentary: Kiss the Melting Pot Goodbye
WSJ.com - Opinion: Back in Business
WSJ.com - Marseille Seeks Calm by Blurring Church-State Line
WSJ.com - France Announces Tightening Of Immigration Controls

Finally, here are some news stories from the International Herald Tribune (free access):

3 in rioting in suburb of Paris get jail terms
Suburban unrest spreads in France
Violence spreads to more troubled Paris suburbs
Chirac urges calm as suburban riots spread
More arson, but clashes recede in Paris suburbs
Violence spreads beyond Paris
Chirac vows arrests and punishment for rioters
France to allow local curfews
For police on front line, a tough, and scary, task
Blogs and text messages spread call to violence
A despairing cry for change
Comments from readers on the unrest in France
Chirac admits failure on social problems
The French evolution: Stones to cars
French police see violence waning
French state of emergency may be extended by 3 months
Immigrant parents pressured in France
Sarkozy ratchets up his challenge to Chirac

Engaging Iran and Syria (1/18)

2007-01-17T09:19:00.000-08:00

There has been much controversy of late about whether the U.S. should engage Iran and Syria, or continue to refuse to negotiate directly with these two problematic countries. That will be the subject of this week's IIF discussion.

And to guide our deliberations, we are fortunate to have once again John H. Kelly, a man intimately familiar with both countries, having served as U.S. Ambassador to Lebanon during the Reagan administration, and as Undersecretary of State for Near East and South Asian Affairs under Bush 41. I have attached a brief bio.

As usual, I am sending along some background information:

Ambassador Kelly sent me this link to the UN Security Council Resolution imposing sanctions on Iran, which he states is "the definitive text and commentary":

http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2006/sc8928.doc.htm

Here are four articles from The Wall Street Journal:

Commentary: A Reagan Strategy for Iran and Syria

How Syria May Hold Key to Iraq

Pentagon Intensifies Pressure on Iran

Commentary: Squeezing Iran

Here is an op/ed piece by David Ignatius from The Washington Post:

The Price of Iran's Help

This article originally appeared last month in the Financial Times:

Talks With Iran And Syria Will Not Be An Easy Ride

From The Economist, here are Backgrounders on both Iran and Syria, with links to articles:

Backgrounder: Iran

Backgrounder: Syria

Here are links to items from the Council on Foreign Relations web site:

Publication List: Iran

Publication List: Syria

And here are links to articles on both countries from the International Crisis Group:

Crisis Watch: Iran

Crisis Watch: Syria

Here is an article from the November/December issue of Foreign Affairs:

The Syrian Solution

Here is an article that originally appeared in Al Hayat:

A Workable Approach to Engaging Syria

This article originally appeared in the September/October issue of Foreign Affairs:

How to Keep the Bomb From Iran

This article on Iran, by Seymour Hersh, is from the November 27 issue of The New Yorker:

The Next Act

Finally, here is an article that broadens the discussion, by Richard Haas, President of the Council on Foreign Relations:

The New Middle East

I, for one, am extremely interested in hearing Ambassador Kelly's views about how we should be dealing with Iran and Syria. Come join us at Villa on Thursday evening as we all try to get a better insight into this troubled area of the world.

Our discussion this coming Thursday will be about Iran and Syria, and for starters, I am forwarding the e-mail I sent out when we discussed Iran a couple of months ago and the most recent Congressional Research Service reports I could find on Iran and Syria:

Iran: U.S. Concerns and Policy Responses
Iran's Nuclear Program: Recent Developments
Iran's Influence in Iraq
Iranian Nuclear Sites Syria: U.S. Relations and Bilateral Issues

----- Original Message -----
From: Charles R. Hubert
To: International_Issues_Forum
Sent: Wednesday, November 01, 2006 7:27 PM
Subject: IIF; Articles on Iran

Our IIF discussion this Thursday will be about Iran, and our moderator will be a relative newcomer to our group, Wayne Gross. Although there have been a number of recent developments, the issues have changed little since early this year; so I am forwarding the e-mail I sent out when we talked about Iran as a part of the Great Decisions 2006 discussion series (see below). I am also sending along some additional background information:

From The Economist, here are a Backgrounder and a link to recent articles on Iran:
Backgrounder: Iran Iran: Recent Articles

Here is a recent report on Iran from the Congressional Research Service:
Iran: U.S. Concerns and Policy Responses 08-25-06

From The NewsHour on PBS, here is an interview in which Iran's Ambassador to the United Nations defends his country's right to a civilian nuclear program:
NEWAMAKER: Javad Zarif

Here is an op/ed piece that appeared last spring in The Wall Street Journal:
Facing Down Iran

Here is a link to articles dealing with Iran from the Council on Foreign Relations:
Recent Publications: Iran

From the Foreign Policy Association web site, here are a link to several useful items and a quiz about Iran:
U.S. & Iran: Online Resources QUIZ: Dealing with Iran

Finally, I am including a link to something I think many of you will find useful or interesting: the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons:
http://www.iaea.org/Publications/Documents/Infcircs/Others/infcirc140.pdf

Relations with Iran remain an important and difficult aspect of U.S. foreign policy. I hope you will join us at Villa this Thursday evening as we discuss a subject that should be of interest to us all.

----- Original Message -----
From: Charles R. Hubert
To: Evening at Emory/Great Decisions
Sent: Wednesday, February 15, 2006 7:27 PM
Subject: Great Decisions 2006; Articles on Iran

Our topic for the second discussion in this Great Decisions series will be "Dealing with Iran." Issues will include: Iran's nuclear program; its links to a number of international terrorist groups, most noticeably Hezbollah; its involvement in post-war Iraq; political reform in the country; and the possibility of the resumption of diplomatic relations with the U.S. I am sending along some background material.

To begin with, here are some items that attempt to explain Iran's two-tiered political system: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/spl/hi/middle_east/03/iran_power/html/default.stm
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/middle_east/iran/structure.html http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran#Politics

Here are a couple of timelines of events in Iran's nuclear program:
Iran's Nuclear Ambitions: Chronology of Key Events
Timeline: Iran's Nuclear Development

Here is a speech given last November at Johns Hopkins University's Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies by R. Nicholas Burns, U.S. Under-Secretary for Political Affairs:
U.S. Policy Toward Iran

Here is President Bush's statement on the Iranian election: http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2005/06/print/20050616.html

Here is a link to an article from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, which was referred to in the Great Decisions Briefing Book:
Changing Iran's Nuclear Interests

Here are links to a few of the articles listed at the end of this section of the Briefing Book:
Iran's Nuclear File: The Uncertain Endgame
Iran: What Does Ahmadi-Nejad's Victory Mean?
The Conservative Wave Rolls On

Here are two items that were sent to me by Jason DeJoannis, who moderates the Tuesday Great Decisions group at Evening at Emory:

Terry Gross interview with Joseph Cirincione, the director for non-proliferation at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, on NPR's Fresh Air:
The New Brinksmanship: Iran's Nuclear Threat

Article by Laura Secor from the November 21 issue of The New Yorker:
FUGITIVES: Young Iranians Confront the Collapse of the Reform Movement

From The Economist, here are a Backgrounder and a link to recent articles on Iran: http://www.economist.com/research/backgrounders/displaybackgrounder.cfm?bg=998452 http://www.economist.com/countries/Iran/fromtheeconomist.cfm

http://www.emailthis.clickability.com/et/emailThis?clickMap=viewThis&etMailToID=1921453160

Here are a few recent items from several newspapers and magazines: http://www.iht.com/bin/print_ipub.php?file=/articles/2006/01/24/opinion/edleverett.php http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/01/17/AR2006011700893_pf.html http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/01/31/AR2006013100233_pf.html http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/02/07/AR2006020702126_pf.html http://www.weeklystandard.com/Utilities/printer_preview.asp?idArticle=6585&R=EB38F5C7 http://www.emailthis.clickability.com/et/emailThis?clickMap=viewThis&etMailToID=1202369281 http://www.emailthis.clickability.com/et/emailThis?clickMap=viewThis&etMailToID=970783718 http://www.emailthis.clickability.com/et/emailThis?clickMap=viewThis&etMailToID=1202369281 http://www.emailthis.clickability.com/et/emailThis?clickMap=viewThis&etMailToID=1908511273

And finally, if you still haven't got enough, here are three sites with links to numerous articles on Iran: http://www.iranfocus.com/modules/news/ http://www.iranpressnews.com/english/
http://news.yahoo.com/fc?tmpl=fc&cid=34&in=world&cat=iran

Jimmy Carter's New Book: Palestine: Peace Not Apartheid (1/11)

2007-01-12T06:37:00.000-08:00

Ever since its publication this past November, former President Jimmy Carter's new book, Palestine: Peace Not Apartheid, has been the subject of controversy and criticism, much of it about the title, itself. This Thursday evening, we will see for ourselves what all the fuss is about. We have chosen the book, and the reaction to it, as the subject of this week's IIF discussion.

As usual, I am sending along some background information:

At about the time of the book's publication, Norman Finkelstein, an author and a professor of political science at DePaul University in Chicago, provided these excerpts:
Peace Not Apartheid: Jimmy Carter's Roadmap
This should be helpful to those of you who have not yet been able to read the entire book.

Shortly thereafter, this harshly critical op/ed piece by Alan Dershowitz was published in The New York Sun:
The World According to Carter

In late November, Carter discussed his book at an event in Virginia, in the D.C. area. Here is a transcript of his remarks:
Palestine: Peace Not Apartheid...Jimmy Carter In His Own Words

The criticism continued to mount:
Carter Book on Israel 'Apartheid' Sparks Bitter Debate

The Simon Wiesenthal Center in Los Angeles issued a statement condemning the book as completely lacking objectivity:
SWC Criticizes President Carter's Bias Towards Israel

Professor Kenneth Stein of Emory University, the first Executive Director of the Carter Center, severed his long-term association with the Center over the book, which he characterized as "replete with factual errors, copied materials not cited, superficialities, glaring omissions, and simply invented segments":
Historian Severs Ties with Carter Center Over Distorted Book
See also the website of Emory University's Institute for the Study of Modern Israel (www.ismi.emory.edu) for Professor Ken Stein's in-depth assessment of the Carter book.

Dennis Ross, envoy to the Middle East in the Clinton administration, commenting on charges that Carter had used maps from Ross's book, The Missing Peace, without permission or attribution, explained that he was more concerned that the maps were used in a misleading way:
Don't Play With Maps

This critical review by Jeff Goldberg, a staff writer at The New Yorker was published in The Washington Post:
What Would Jimmy Do?

Additional opinion pieces were penned in The Washington Post by Michael Kinsley and in The National Review by Rich Lowry:
It's Not Apartheid
Creepy Carter: Ex-presidential madness

Carter answered his critics in interviews on a number of television programs. Here is one from the NewsHour on PBS:
Newsmaker Interview | Jimmy Carter

This op/ed piece by Carter was originally published in the Los Angeles Times:
Speaking frankly about Israel and Palestine

Here is a transcript of an interview Carter did with Robbie Brown, of The Wheel, Emory University's student newspaper:
President Defends New Book Against Charges of Bias, Falsehood

And the Carter Center issued this letter about the book to the Jewish community:
Jimmy Carter Issues Letter to Jewish Community on Palestine Peace Not Apartheid

Last Sunday The New York Times: published this "long-awaited and largely critical review of the book written by Times Deputy Foreign Editor Ethan Bronner":
Jews, Arabs and Jimmy Carter

Here is a transcript of a debate about the book that aired Monday on Democracy Now:
Debate: Norman Finkelstein vs. Gil Troy On Jimmy Carter's Controversial Book "Palestine: Peace Not Apartheid"

Here are two positive articles on Carter's book, from The Nation:
Get Carter
Hurricane Carter

Carter's Arab Financiers

This article by Jay Bookman originally appeared in the Atlanta Journal-Constitution:
Anti-Semitism Label Confines Open Debate

Mass resignation from Carter Center

Afghanistan and the Resurgent Taliban (1/4/07)

2007-01-04T07:36:00.000-08:00

It has now been more than five years since the U.S.-led invasion of Afghanistan and the overthrow of the Taliban, and much has been accomplished in that time. A new constitution was written and adopted, surprisingly high percentage of the people turned out for elections, and a democratically elected government was installed. There have been improvements in the construction of paved roads, in access to health care, in education, and in the status of women and girls.

Unfortunately, however, substantial problems remain. Control by President Hamid Karzai's government is tentative, at best, outside the capital, Kabul. The parliament is virtually dysfunctional, and numbers warlords and drug kingpins among its members. NATO forces, in their first deployment outside Europe, are having difficulty with the resurgent Taliban; insurgents take refuge across the border in Pakistan. Opium poppy cultivation has reached an all-time high, and the drug trade is on the increase. Security problems and lack of funds have slowed reconstruction efforts considerably. And the country's economy remains backward; Afghanistan is one of the world's poorest nations. There is concern that the country could collapse into chaos and become once again a "failed state."

All of these issues, Afghanistan's successes and its failures, will be the subject of this Thursday's IIF discussion. We will be privileged to have as our guest, to help guide our discussion, Dr. Rashid Naim from the Department of Political Science at Georgia State.

As usual, I am sending along some background information:

Here is an article from The Wall Street Journal that attempts to describe the good and the bad about Afghanistan's recent history:

Commentary: Afghanistan: Successes And Setbacks 5 Years Later

Hot off the presses, here is an article from the current issue of Foreign Affairs:

Saving Afghanistan by Barnett R. Rubin

I thought these three items from the Council on Foreign Relations web site were all quite informative, and all contain links to additional articles:

Afghanistan Five Years On

NATO and the Afghan-Pakistani Border

Afghanistan Update

Here is a link to the executive summary of a report from the International Crisis Group, which contains a link to the full report:

Countering Afghanistan’s Insurgency: No Quick Fixes

Also from the ICG, here is a report on the history of the conflict in Afghanistan

Conflict history: Afghanistan

Here are several reports on different aspects of the situation in Afghanistan from the Congressional Research Service:

Afghanistan: Post-War Governance, Security, and U.S. Policy

Afghanistan: Elections, Constitution, and Government

NATO in Afghanistan: A Test of the Transatlantic Alliance

Afghanistan: Narcotics and U.S. Policy

From The Economist, here are two Backgrounders and a link to recent articles on Afghanistan:
Backgrounder: Afghanistan's Politics

Backgrounder: Afghanistan's Economy

Articles by Subject: Afghanistan

Finally, here is an op/ed piece by Max Boot that originally appeared in the Los Angeles Times, which accurately sums up concerns about the situation in Afghanistan:
Get Serious About Afghanistan

So join us Thursday evening at Villa for the first IIF discussion of the new year. Afghanistan, I fear, will be appearing in the news more frequently in the coming months, and this is a good chance to get some good information on the conflict there. And come party with us on Saturday!

Taiwan (12/14)

2006-12-15T07:08:00.000-08:00

Three months ago, when Taiwan was last the subject of one of our IIF discussions, we had as our guest Dr. Lung-chu Chen, and almost all of our time was spent talking about whether Taiwan should be admitted to the United Nations. This meant that a large number of important issues were left on the table, including: relations between Taiwan and the Mainland and cross-strait developments in the Chen Administration; Taiwan's defense budget and U.S. arms sales to Taiwan; the EU arms embargo against the PRC; revision of Taiwan's constitution; abolition of the National Unification Council and guidelines; the PRC's Anti-Secession Law; the corruption scandals affecting the DPP; visits to the PRC by KMT party members; and Taiwan's entry into the WHO and related health issues. We decided to invite Director General R.C. Wu of Taipei Economic and Cultural Office in Atlanta to come at some future date and discuss some ot these issues with us.

Last weekend, in mayoral elections Taiwan's two largest cities, Kaohsiung and Taipei, "voters failed to give the stinging rebuke many expected to the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) of President Chen Shui-bian; although the DPP's candidate lost the mayorship of Taipei to the opposition Kuomintang (KMT), the ruling party narrowly held on to Kaohsiung." The occasion of this election seemed the perfect opportunity for Director Wu's visit, and he has graciously accepted our invitation to join us Thursday evening.

More! TECO offered to provide food for us after our meeting. We thought this was extremely generous and accepted, expecting perhaps egg rolls, dumplings, and perhaps a few other finger foods. Wrong! Nicole Denison of TECO e-mailed me about the arrangements, "the menu looks like this: green beans with garlic sauce, eggplant with black bean sauce, chinese broccoli, pot stickers, vegetable egg rolls, roast duck, veg fried rice, and red bean sesame balls for desert. I will bring all plates, cups and utensils along with a sweet aloe juice to drink." It was clear TECO is planning to provide a full meal, and quite a good one!

Here is some background information for the discussion:

The Congressional Research has done three recent reports on Taiwan. Here are the links:

Taiwan: Recent Developments and U.S. Policy Choices 10-09-06

Taiwan-U.S. Political Relations: New Strains and Changes

Taiwan: Major U.S. Arms Sales Since 1990

Here is a link to the Country Briefing on Taiwan from The Economist, which provides links to recent articles:

Country Briefing: Taiwan

And here are a few recent articles from the International Herald Tribune:

http://www.iht.com/bin/print.php?id=3815777

http://www.iht.com/bin/print.php?id=3829502

http://www.iht.com/bin/print.php?id=3831320

http://www.iht.com/bin/print.php?id=3842453

http://www.iht.com/bin/print.php?id=3841517

http://www.iht.com/bin/print.php?id=3844426

http://www.iht.com/bin/print.php?id=3854637

Iraq: Plan B (12/7)

2006-12-07T09:35:00.000-08:00

The long awaited report of the Iraq Study Group is scheduled to be released Wednesday, and of course there have been leaks, and speculation about the commission's findings and recommendations. In addition, there have been numerous other plans proposed about what to do next in Iraq. So we decided to do a little speculating and proposing of our own, and we chose "Plan B: What Next in Iraq?" as the topic for this Thursday's IIF discussion.

As usual, I am sending along some background information:

Here are a couple of articles from The Washington Post, speculating about what the commission may recommend:

Study Group to Call for Pullback

Iraq Plan Strives To Bridge Divide

The Wall Street Journal published these two articles about some of the different plans being proposed, and who is supporting them:

Commentary: Plan B

Commentary: A Plethora of Plans About What's Next

Here is a Backgrounder from the Council on Foreign Relations that has links to a number of good articles:

'Plan B' Scenarios in Iraq

Senator Joseph Biden and Leslie Gelb, the president emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations, have proposed a plan for dividing Iraq into three ethnic federations. Here are the plan and some articles Biden and Gelb have written promoting it:

Biden-Gelb Plan for Iraq

Iraq: A Way Forward

Unity Through Autonomy in Iraq

A Plan to Hold Iraq Together

The Minimum Necessary

The Pentagon has also been considering several options for Iraq. Here are stories about those plans from The Washington Post, CBS, and The Washington Times:

Pentagon May Suggest Short-Term Buildup Leading to Iraq Exit

Pentagon Reviewing Three Plans for Iraq

Joint Chiefs oppose Iraq pullout

Study group to echo Bush

I have attached a transcript of a portion of Meet the Press from Sunday before last, in which Rep. Duncan Hunter, Chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, proposes yet another option.

And then we learned in just this past week that shortly before he resigned as Secretary of Defense, Donald Rumsfeld "submitted a classified memo to the White House that acknowledged that the Bush administration’s strategy in Iraq was not working and called for a major course correction." Here are Rumsfeld's memo and stories about it from The New York Times and The Washington Post:

Rumsfeld’s Memo of Options for Iraq War

Rumsfeld Memo Proposed ‘Major Adjustment’ in Iraq

Rumsfeld Called for Change in War Plan

Finally, from the July/August issue Foreign Affairs, here are a Roundtable on Iraq, featuring Stephen Biddle, Larry Diamond, James Dobbins, Leslie Gelb, and Chaim Kaufmann, and responses from Christopher Hitchens, Fred Kaplan, Kevin Drum, and Marc Lynch that the magazine posted on its website:

What to Do in Iraq: A Roundtable

Responses to "What to Do in Iraq"

So, keep an eye out for the release of the Iraq Survey Group's report Wednesday. It will in all likelihood be to long to read in its entirety before Thursday evening's discussion, but there will probably be an executive summary that will give us a good idea what they are recommending. Then come join us at Villa for our discussion, and will try to sort out what the report means and what its effect will be, and we will consider some of the other options that have been proposed. See you then.

The Effect of Midterm Elections on Foreign Policy (11/16)

2006-11-10T07:16:00.000-08:00

We intend to consider the ramifications of the changes in leadership throughout the Congress and at the Defense Department with respect to the making of US foreign policy - Rumsfeld, Pelosi, the Iraq war, committees... What is the perception in Europe, China and elsewhere?

The Stern Review: Climate Change Economics (11/9)

2006-11-03T08:43:00.000-08:00

Nicholas Stern, the former chief economist at the World Bank, has headed a 700 page British study on climate change. How much is it going to cost to mitigate and adapt to climate change over the next hundred years?

Climate warning is a bit too stern, op/ed, The Times, Nov06
Stern warning prompts search for cheapest way to go green, The Times, Nov06
UK issues warming warning, hires Gore, MSNBC, Oct06
Budgets falling in race to fight global warming, International Herald Tribune, Oct06
Stern by Name, Stern by Nature, The Guardian, Oct06
A Global Warming Fund Could Succeed Where Kyoto Failed, by Jagdish Bhagwati, Aug06
What to Do About Climate Change, Foreign Affairs, May/Jun06
Agenda for Climate Action, Pew Center Report, Feb06
Global Warming 101: 2005 Vies for Hottest Year on Record, Union for Concerned Scientists, Jan06

Iran (11/2)

2006-11-03T08:36:00.000-08:00

Our IIF discussion this Thursday will be about Iran, and our moderator will be a relative newcomer to our group, Wayne Gross. Although there have been a number of recent developments, the issues have changed little since early this year; so I am forwarding the e-mail I sent out when we talked about Iran as a part of the Great Decisions 2006 discussion series (see below). I am also sending along some additional background information:

From The Economist, here are a Backgrounder and a link to recent articles on Iran:

Backgrounder: Venezuela

Iran: Recent Articles

Here is a recent report on Iran from the Congressional Research Service:

Iran: U.S. Concerns and Policy Responses 08-25-06

From The NewsHour on PBS, here is an interview in which Iran's Ambassador to the United Nations defends his country's right to a civilian nuclear program:

NEWAMAKER: Javad Zarif

Here is an op/ed piece that appeared last spring in The Wall Street Journal:

Facing Down Iran

Here is a link to articles dealing with Iran from the Council on Foreign Relations:

Recent Publications: Iran

From the Foreign Policy Association web site, here are a link to several useful items and a quiz about Iran:

U.S. & Iran: Online Resources

QUIZ: Dealing with Iran

Finally, I am including a link to something I think many of you will find useful or interesting: the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons:

http://www.iaea.org/Publications/Documents/Infcircs/Others/infcirc140.pdf

Since this is a pdf file, to read it you will need the Adobe Acrobat Reader, which can be downloaded for free; here is the link:

http://www.adobe.com/products/acrobat/readstep2.html.
Just click on the arrow beside "Choose A Platform" in step one, select your operating system from the drop-down menu, then click on "Download" in step two.

----- Original Message -----

From: Charles R. Hubert

To: Evening at Emory/Great Decisions

Sent: Wednesday, February 15, 2006 7:27 PM

Subject: Great Decisions 2006; Articles on Iran

Our topic for the second discussion in this Great Decisions series will be "Dealing with Iran." Issues will include: Iran's nuclear program; its links to a number of international terrorist groups, most noticeably Hezbollah; its involvement in post-war Iraq; political reform in the country; and the possibility of the resumption of diplomatic relations with the U.S. I am sending along some background material.

To begin with, here are some items that attempt to explain Iran's two-tiered political system:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/spl/hi/middle_east/03/iran_power/html/default.stm

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/middle_east/iran/structure.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran#Politics

Here are a couple of timelines of events in Iran's nuclear program:

Iran's Nuclear Ambitions: Chronology of Key Events

Timeline: Iran's Nuclear Development

Here is a speech given last November at Johns Hopkins University's Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies by R. Nicholas Burns, U.S. Under-Secretary for Political Affairs:

U.S. Policy Toward Iran

Here is President Bush's statement on the Iranian election:

http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2005/06/print/20050616.html

Here is a link to an article from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, which was referred to in the Great Decisions Briefing Book:

Changing Iran's Nuclear Interests

Here are links to a few of the articles listed at the end of this section of the Briefing Book:

Iran's Nuclear File: The Uncertain Endgame

Iran: What Does Ahmadi-Nejad's Victory Mean?

The Conservative Wave Rolls On

Here are two items that were sent to me by Jason DeJoannis, who moderates the Tuesday Great Decisions group at Evening at Emory:

Terry Gross interview with Joseph Cirincione, the director for non-proliferation at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, on NPR's Fresh Air: The New Brinksmanship: Iran's Nuclear Threat

Article by Laura Secor from the November 21 issue of The New Yorker: FUGITIVES: Young Iranians Confront the Collapse of the Reform Movement

From The Economist, here are a Backgrounder and a link to recent articles on Iran:

http://www.economist.com/research/backgrounders/displaybackgrounder.cfm?bg=998452

http://www.economist.com/countries/Iran/fromtheeconomist.cfm

http://www.emailthis.clickability.com/et/emailThis?clickMap=viewThis&etMailToID=1921453160

Here are a few recent items from several newspapers and magazines:

http://www.iht.com/bin/print_ipub.php?file=/articles/2006/01/24/opinion/edleverett.php

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/01/17/AR2006011700893_pf.html

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/01/31/AR2006013100233_pf.html

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/02/07/AR2006020702126_pf.html

http://www.weeklystandard.com/Utilities/printer_preview.asp?idArticle=6585&R=EB38F5C7

http://www.emailthis.clickability.com/et/emailThis?clickMap=viewThis&etMailToID=1202369281

http://www.emailthis.clickability.com/et/emailThis?clickMap=viewThis&etMailToID=970783718

http://www.emailthis.clickability.com/et/emailThis?clickMap=viewThis&etMailToID=1202369281

http://www.emailthis.clickability.com/et/emailThis?clickMap=viewThis&etMailToID=1908511273

And finally, if you still haven't got enough, here are three sites with links to numerous articles on Iran:

http://www.iranfocus.com/modules/news/

http://www.iranpressnews.com/english/

http://news.yahoo.com/fc?tmpl=fc&cid=34&in=world&cat=iran

Venezuela (10/26)

2006-11-03T08:33:00.000-08:00

Hugo Chavez's remarks at the United Nations, comparing George W. Bush to Satan, have once again placed the tempestuous Venezuelan president back in the international spotlight, where he has been quite a bit of late. From his plans for a "Bolivarian revolution" to benefit his country's poor, to his adoption of authoritarian measures to consolidate his control; from his ouster and reinstatement in 2002, to his survival of the recall election in 2004; from his criticism of the United States, to his friendships with leaders such as Fidel Castro and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Chavez has been stirring up controversy both at home and abroad ever since his election in 1998. Although Venezuela's current bid for a seat on the U.N. Security Council appears to have failed, and although candidates he has supported in other Latin American countries recently have fared poorly, his re-election in Venezuela's Presidential election this coming December is a near certainty, and he will surely remain a major player in South American politics, indeed in world politics, for the foreseeable future.

These are just some of the reasons that Hugo Chavez and Venezuela have been chosen as the topic for this Thursday's IIF discussion. Curt Coulombe will serve as our moderator.

As usual, I am sending along some background information:

From The Economist, here are the Country Briefing and a Backgrounder on Venezuela:

Country Briefing: Venezuela

Backgrounder: Venezuela

Here is an article from the Foreign Policy Association:

Venezuela: The consolidation of the Bolivarian Revolution and Beyond

Here is a biography of Chavez from the free online encyclopedia Wikipedia:

Hugo Chávez

Here is an interview that appeared in Time last month, in which Chavez discusses his tirade against George W. Bush at the United Nations:

The Sound & The Fury

Jennifer McCoy of the Carter Center wrote an article about Chavez that appeared in Current History a few years ago. Here is the link:

Demystifying Venezuela’s Hugo Chávez

Here is a Deborah Sontag interview with Chavez that appeared in The New York Times Magazine shortly after the coup and counter-coup in 2002:

In the Time of Hugo Chávez

Foreign Affairs has published several articles on Venezuela this year. Here are links to four of them:

Is Washington Losing Latin America?

Latin America's Left Turn

In Search of Hugo Chávez

A Benign Revolution

Here is an article that appeared earlier this year in Smithsonian Magazine:

Venezuela Steers a New Course

Finally, here is a site from Venezuela where you can find mostly pro-Chavez news and analysis:

Venezuelanalysis.com

I hope you will make plans to join us at Villa this Thursday evening to discuss this colorful, complex, and controversial leader, and the country he governs.

North Korea (10/19)

2006-10-13T09:54:00.000-07:00

Next Thursday we will talk about the newest nuclear state.

Somalia (10/12)

2006-10-13T09:52:00.000-07:00

Somalia. Still today the name conjures up images of the "Blackhawk Down" incident back in 1993. And although thirteen years have now passed, chaos continues to reign in Somalia. Two northern regions, Somaliland and Puntland, have declared their independence, but though both are relatively stable, neither has been recognized by the international community. The rest of the country has not had a stable government since 1991, and that one was a brutal dictatorship!

And the violence has actually intensified in the past few months! The militias of the Islamic Courts Union (ICU), feared by some to be "the new Taliban," have pushed other militias loyal to various warlords (some claimed to be supported by the CIA) out of Mogadishu, and are expanding the territory under their control. The U.N. recognized government, the Transitional Federal Institutions (TFI), is based in the southern town of Baidoa, and has little power elsewhere. Talks between the ICU and the TFI, aimed at forming a "government of national unity" have broken down, and it appears that the ICU will eventually take over the entire country. Somalia's neighbors, principally Ethiopia, have become involved, as well.

What does the future hold for Somalia? That will be the subject of this Thursday's IIF discussion. One of our regulars, Jacobus Boers, will serve as moderator.

As usual, I am sending along some background information:

The Congressional testimony of Ted Dagne, the Congressional Research Service's Africa expert, gives a good summary of the situation:

Somalia: Expanding Crisis in the Horn of Africa

Since this is a pdf file, to read it you will need the Adobe Acrobat Reader, which can be downloaded for free; here is the link:
http://www.adobe.com/products/acrobat/readstep2.html.

Just click on the arrow beside "Choose A Platform" in step one, select your operating system from the drop-down menu, then click on "Download" in step two.

Here is the executive summary of a report from the International Crisis Group, which contains a link to the full report:

Can the Somali Crisis Be Contained?

From The Economist, here are a Backgrounder and a few recent articles on Somalia:

Backgrounder: Somalia

A holy war in the Horn?

The path to ruin

The Osama factor

The rising fear of a war of proxies

Courting trouble

Not the new Taliban, yet

Seeking calm amid the violence

Now for the whole country

Guess who's running it now

A triumph for Africa's Taliban

Flaring again

Here are a few items on Somalia from the Council on Foreign Relations:

Somalia’s High Stakes Power Struggle

Somalia at the Brink

Somalia's Terrorist Infestation

Horn of Terror

Finally, here are several items on Somalia that were sent to me by Jason DeJoannis:

Anarchy and Invention: How Does Somalia's Private Sector Cope without Government?, World Bank
Efforts by C.I.A. Fail in Somalia, Officials Charge, NY Times
Unveiling Somalia's Islamists, BBC
In Somalia, a Boot Camp for Islam, LA Times
Get Ethiopian troops out of Somalia, CS Monitor

Come to Villa this Thursday and find out more about this war-torn area of the world that is likely to have increasing importance in the near future.

When does history begin? (10/5/06)

2006-10-05T10:48:00.000-07:00

The topic for this Thursday's IIF discussion will be "When does history begin? or Whose land is it?", and we will be talking about "claims ... about one or another ethnic group having a right to some particular piece of the world." How are we to decide the legitimacy of such claims? What factors should be taken into account? Our discussion will be led by two of our regulars, Joel Kollin and Jason DeJoannis, and as background, I am passing along an article forwarded to me by Joel that was one reason this topic was chosen, and a comment and several articles that were sent to me by Jason. The questions we will be considering seem to arise in the context of so many of the discussions we have about so many different parts of the world. I hope you will join us at Villa this Thursday evening for what should be an interesting discussion.

Charles - I feel that the issue is Whose land is it? (When does history begin?) Here is one article for thinking about the issue:Whose Land Is It?
[And here is another: Whose Land is it anyway? CRH]

The trials and tribulations of Kashmir and Palestine (if I may) began in the same year, 1947, according to the official record. But when did these most intractable of conflicts truly begin, and does it even matter? After all, modern realities are just that; California et al. are unlikely to be returned to Mexico anytime soon (nor the US and Mexico to Native Americans). On the other hand, by looking only at today’s realities and ignoring the past, are we not encouraging opportunism? Which ghosts should be welcomed at the arbitration table?

The tension between “facts on the ground” and the historical litany of injustices is surprisingly universal, appearing in numerous post-World War II situations. For example, the breakaway territories of Taiwan and Northern Cyprus remain in indefinite limbo, with de facto independence but little hope for recognition. Further unresolved cases are on display in Sri Lanka , Indonesia , Tibet , Spain , Kosovo , Bosnia , Japan/China, Kurdistan , Chechnya and elsewhere, while Northern Ireland offers a counterexample of recent vintage.

In the 2005 World Summit, among areas of UN reform discussed was the addition of a new “peacebuilding” agency to supplement the numerous post-conflict peacekeeping operations around the world. Longstanding disputes tend to accumulate complexity and emotion as they cycle through dormant and active periods; entrenched polemics deepen distrust and polarize identity. We will discuss all of this on Thursday as we look for common threads in all-too-common situations.

Kashmir conflict, Wikipedia
Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Wikipedia
Northern Cyprus, Wikipedia
The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict in a Nutshell, MidEast Web<
Question of Palestine – History, UN
Kosovo Dominoes: World hotspots in a nutshell, On Line Opinion
Kashmir Flashpoint, BBC

The Sunni/Shiite Divide (8/24/06)

2006-10-02T18:10:00.000-07:00

The Shia Revival is the title of a new book by scholar Vali Nasr. It considers the reemergence of sectarian issues throughout the Middle East ranging from Lebanon, the Pesian Gulf states and Iraq all the way through Iran, Pakistan and Afghanistan - the so-called Shia crescent.

The Presidential Election in the Democratic Republic of Congo (8/17/06)

2006-10-02T18:08:00.000-07:00

With bad news coming in daily from all over the globe - the Middle East, east and south Asia, eastern, western, and southern Africa - it is surprising to find a possible bright spot in, of all places, central Africa! In the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), formerly known as Zaire, it appears that the bloodiest conflict the world has seen since the Second World War, with over four million killed since 1998, has truly come to an end. Much of the fighting ended with the formation of a power-sharing transitional government late in 2003. At the end of last year, a nationwide referendum endorsed a new constitution for the country. And on July 30, voters went to the polls for the first truly free elections since the country gained its independence in 1960, choosing a President and 500 members of the National Assembly. Turnout was over 80%. There was violence, and there were irregularities, but less than expected. Final results will not be known for certain until at least the end of this month, but it appears that the two leading vote getters were the current President, Joseph Kabila, and current Vice-President and former warlord Jean-Pierre Bemba. If a runoff is necessary, and it appears likely that it will be, it will be held in October.

What is likely to happen? What is the significance of these events? That will be the subject of this Thursday's IIF discussion. Jacobus Boers will serve as our moderator.

As usual, I am sending along some background information:

From The Economist, here are a Backgrounder and a series of articles beginning about the time of the end of the conflict in the DRC:

Backgrounder: Democratic Republic of Congo

Is Africa's greatest war over?

Democracy postponed

Congo’s constitutional referendum

The hopeful continent

A giant leap forward

A tantalising wait for the vote

Hold your breath for the big one

Election fever

Mending Africa's broken heart

A long wait for democracy

After the poll
Here are two reports on the elections that aired on The NewsHour on PBS:

Democratic Republic of Congo Prepares for First Free Elections

Hope, Fear Mark Congo's First Democratic Elections in 46 Years

Here are two items about the election from The Wall Street Journal:

Commentary: Congo Votes

Chaotic and Slow Vote Counting In Congo Raises Tampering Risk

The Carter Center sent an international delegation to observe the election. Here is their preliminary report:

Preliminary Statement of The Carter Center on the Democratic Republic of Congo July 30, 2006, Elections

From the free online encyclopedia Wikipedia, here are a general article on the DRC, and an article on the election:

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Democratic Republic of the Congo general election, 2006

Here are two items from the Council on Foreign Relations:

Backgrounder: Congo's Elections

Daily Analysis: For Now, Relief in Congo

And two from the International Crisis Group:

Democratic Republic of Congo

Conflict History: DR Congo

Finally, here are a few news items that have appeared in various newspapers in the couple of weeks since the election:

Kabila wins key east city in Congo vote

UN: Too Early to Declare Winner Despite Early DRC Election Results

After Congo Vote, Most Are Hoping for a Round 2

Vote Count Continues in Congo Election

The Media and National Security (9/28/06)

2006-10-01T13:55:00.000-07:00

The Washington Post publishes a story about secret CIA prisons, based on leaks of classified documents. The CIA employee suspected of leaking the documents is fired and faces possible criminal prosecution. The Post reporter wins a Pulitzer Prize.

After holding the story for a year, The New York Times, relying on leaks of classified information, reveals that the National Security Agency has been carrying out wiretaps, within the U.S., of international phone calls, without court approval. Critics call the program "unconstitutional" and "shocking," but the Administration claims the program was both legal and necessary, that appropriate members of Congress were informed of the program and updated on it periodically, and that its revelation in the press damaged its effectiveness and harmed national security.

The Times and several other papers, relying on leaks, publish a story revealing that the U.S. Treasury Department and other government agencies have been using an internet program that secretly monitors international banking transactions to track funds related to terrorism. Although the program is apparently completely legal, critics decry it as "an abuse of power." Administration officials claim that there have been "a number of very successful counterterrorism investigations that have had successful conclusions where this program was one of the key factors that lead to the successful conclusion of those investigations." The President blasts the media for publishing details of the surveillance program, calling it "a disgraceful move that did great harm" to America.

Press reports about prisoner abuse at Abu Ghraib continue in the press for weeks, months, years, complete with lurid photographs, while stories about the brutal murder of a U.S. journalist or a human rights worker are seen no more after only a few days.

A New York Times reporter is imprisoned for months for failure to tell a Grand Jury her source for a story that was never written. Later it is revealed that the Special Prosecutor who subpoenaed her was aware at the time that no crime had been committed. A U.S. Court of Appeals later upholds a subpoena for the telephone records of the same reporter relating to a different story.

A classified National Intelligence Estimate is leaked to The New York Times, which, forty days before an upcoming election, publishes portions of it that cast doubt on Administration claims about the effect of the war in Iraq on the war against terrorism. In response, the President declassifies the entire "key findings" section of the Estimate, angrily claiming that the previously published portion gave a false impression of its conclusions.

The media and national security, that will be the topic of our IIF discussion tonight. The press claims to be acting in the public interest in keeping an eye on government. The government claims to be keeping secrets in the interest of national security. Tonight we will try to sort this all out for ourselves. Ably representing the media will be our guest, Judy Milestone, a retired Senior Vice-President for CNN.

Taiwan: Quest For Recognition (9/14/06)

2006-09-15T10:56:00.000-07:00

We have not had an IIF discussion about Taiwan in over two years, which somewhat surprises me. True, Taiwan comes up from time to time as we talk about other topics, mainly the PRC, but it has not been at the center of one of our discussions since the stormy election back in the spring of 2004, when Director General R.C. Wu of the Atlanta Taipei Economic and Cultural Office (TECO) joined us as our guest. So when Nicole Denison from TECO informed me that "an accomplished scholar of international politics and human rights," Professor Lung-chu Chen, would be coming to Atlanta, and would be available to come to one of our Thursday evening discussions, it seemed like a perfect opportunity to put Taiwan back on our calendar. Nicole said that Dr. Chen would be interested in talking about "Taiwan's bid to join the United Nations ... Taiwan's defined status in regard to international law, and the movement of the Taiwanese people over the past 20 years to be recognized in the international community." That will be our starting point, and we can branch out into other matters relating to U.S.-Taiwan relations.

Background Information

Several recent articles that Dr. Chen has written about Taiwan:
This nation shall one day prevail at the UN
Taiwan Relations Act serves global peace
Taiwan less isolated in new global perspective
Democracy needs both diversity and unity
To flourish, showcase the nation's rich culture
Creating a constitution from the bottom up

Early last year, The Economist did one of its excellent Surveys about Taiwan:
Dancing with the enemy: A survey of Taiwan

Also from The Economist:
Country Briefing: Taiwan
Backgrounder: Taiwan's politics

Finally, here are a couple of recent reports from the Congressional Research Service:
Taiwan: Recent Developments and U.S. Policy Choices 02-28-06
The Rise of China and Its Effect on Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea: U.S. Policy Choices 01-13-06

Tying Up Loose Ends

2006-09-15T10:50:00.000-07:00

Revisiting and updating the topics we have taken up in the last few months. Here is a list:

04-13 Immigration

04-20 The National Security Strategy

04-27 Italian Election

05-04 Israeli/Palestinian Conflict

05-11 South American Elections

05-18 Eastern Europe

05-25 Nepal

06-01 Israeli/Palestinian Conflict Redux

06-08 Intelligence

06-15 Darfur

06-22 Terrorism

06-29 North Korea

07-07 American Competitiveness

07-13 Mexican Presidential Election

07-20 G-8 Summit

07-27 Israel/Lebanon

08-03 China

08-10 The Copenhagen Consensus

08-17 Congo Election

08-24 Sunni/Shiite Divide

08-31 Russia

The most significant recent development was in the presidential election in Mexico. Felipe Calderon was certified by the Federal Election Tribunal as the winner of the election and the President-Elect. His opponent Andres Manuel Lopez-Obrador and his supporters nonetheless vowed to continue to contest the results.

In Darfur and in the Democratic Republic of Congo, there have been disturbing developments. Back in the U.S., the House and the Senate have passed conflicting immigration bills and do not appear to be able to get together on a compromise. And, of course, trouble is still brewing in the Middle East, with Israeli conflicts with Palestinians in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon remaining unsettled.

Feel free to post other new developments you think are significant.

Russia (8/31/06)

2006-09-15T10:36:00.000-07:00

The U.S. relationship with Russia has changed quite a bit since the end of the Cold War. With the Soviet Union we had a Great Power rivalry that involved containment and mutually assured destruction. Since the fall of communism and the breakup of the Soviet Union, there have been hopes that Russia would be integrated into the West, and attempts, with varying success to bring that about. Now many believe that increasing Russian independence indicates that the country has decided to go its own way. Recent comments by Vice President Cheney and Senator McCain have been quite critical, while remarks by both President Bush and Secretary of State Rice have been more conciliatory. What does all this means for how we should engage with Russia?

From the current issue of Foreign Affairs:

Russia Leaves the West

Two notable scholars with very different views onU.S.-Russia relations. First Stephen Cohen:

The New American Cold War

and Zbigniew Brzezinski:

Zbigniew Brzezinski Assesses U.S.-Russia Relations

Living With Russia

These two Foreign Affairs articles were published a couple of years ago:

A Normal Country

Flight From Freedom: What Russians Think and Want

A good article about another factor that is certain to affect future U.S.-Russia relations:

Russia's Clout in World Energy Market

The Copenhagen Consensus (August 10, 2006)

2006-07-23T11:04:00.000-07:00

How do you get the world's leaders to realize the world has limited resources to fix its problems and that it needs to prioritize? In 2004, a Dane, Bjorn Lomborg, brought together eight of the world's top economists - including four Nobel Laureates - in Copenhagen, where they were asked to evaluate the world's problems, think of the costs and efficiencies attached to solving each, and then produce a prioritized list of those most deserving of money. The results were stunning and, while the economists were from varying political stripes, they largely agreed.

Lomborg has since held other Copenhagen Consensus events, including one involving eight U.N. ambassadors (including those from the U.S., China and India), and plans more in the future. Prioritization, cost-effectiveness and efficiency are nearly unheard-of concepts among the governments, international bodies and aid groups that oversee good works. Yet, a rational allocation of resources would seem to be the best way to accomplish the most good in the shortest time.

Rick Bruno will moderate IIF's discussion on this topic on Thursday, August 10th. Attached is a recent Wall Street Journal article that provides a little more overview to the Copenhagen Consensus. Also, Wikipedia is a good place to find some initial information on Lomborg's project. And, of course, you can go right to the source to their website at www.copenhagenconsensus.com

Charles Hubert has been following this topic for years and renewed his interest after reading these articles:
How to save the world: Bolton v Gore
Copenhagen Consensus 2006: A United Nations Perspective
Making Money Count: Best Buys to Save Lives

His interest was initially raised by a series of articles in The Economist. Here are some additional links on the topic:
A modest undertaking
Curbing disease
A remedy for financial turbulence?
The price of peace
The learning deficit
The economics of climate change
Fighting corruption
Feeding the hungry
Migration and development
Understanding the global “water crisis”
Liberating trade
Putting the world to rights

China On the Rise (August 3, 2006)

2006-07-23T10:58:00.000-07:00

Abe Revitch recently returned from a trip to China and has agreed to lead a discussion on China.

With all eyes currently on the Middle East, we sometimes lose track of the fact that most foreign policy experts believe that the most important issue in U.S. foreign policy is our relationship with China. This ancient nation, the largest in the world, is emerging economically, politically, and militarily, and this will provide us plenty of material for this week's IIF discussion. We will be led by one of our regulars, Abe Revitch, who has just returned from a trip to China.

As usual, I am sending along some background information:
Early last year, Foreign Policy devoted most of one issue to a Special Report on China. Here is the link:
href="http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?story_id=2754">thisChina Rising
I found this debate between Zbigniew Brzezinski and John J. Mearsheimer particularly interesting:
Clash of the Titans
Here are three recent articles that were sent to me by Rick Bruno, which deal with troubling aspects of U.S.-China relations:
China's Nuclear Diplomacy
Currency Manipulator?
The SCO and China's Reach

This article by Bill Gertz originally appeared as a two part series in The Washington Times:
Chinese Dragon Awakens

Here are three articles, one from Foreign Affairs and the other two from Atlantic Monthly, that present very different views about the future of our relationship with China:
Don't Break the Engagement
Managing China's Rise
How We Would Fight China

Here is an article on the rise of China that was originally published in Foreign Affairs:
China Takes Off

Here is an op/ed piece from the International Herald Tribune that points out some of the problems faced by China and by India, as well:
China and India: Giants unchained? Not so fast!

Middle East Update: Renewed Turmoil in Israel, Gaza, and Lebanon (July 28, 2006)

2006-07-20T07:04:00.000-07:00

John H. Kelly, formerly U.S. Ambassador to Lebanon and Assistant Secretary of State for the Near East and South Asia willbe our guest at this discussion.

Suggestions for new topics

2006-07-11T14:08:00.000-07:00

We are inviting folks who share in our discussion to suggest some future topics. Please post your suggestions here. Topics already suggested include:

Iran - an emerging regional power
Iran - the nuclear standoff
Somalia; the new Afghanistan under Taliban?
Russia - the new energy powerhouse?
The Baltic states
Uruguay
The new Mercosur/Mercosul, after including Venezuela
Venezuela
When does history start? - longstanding conflicts based on "historic claims" versus "current facts on the ground," i.e. Kashmir, Israel, Kosovo, Ireland, Darfur, Taiwan and many more.
Iraq
American foreign policy - the influence and effect of other government policies
European Enlargement 200 - including Romania and Bulgaria
Cuba
Democratization around the world
The former Yugoslavia

The 2006 G-8 Summit in St. Petersburg (July 20, 2006)

2006-07-11T14:06:00.000-07:00

This event is free and open to the public. We meet at the Villa International library (2nd Floor), 1749 Clifton Road, Atlanta, GA from 7:30 pm - 9:00 pm.

The Mexican Presidential Election (July 13, 2006)

2006-07-11T14:05:00.000-07:00

Teodoro Maus, former consul of Mexico in Atlanta will be out guest and this event is free and open to the public

American Competitiveness (July 6, 2006)

2006-07-11T14:03:00.000-07:00

Since around the first of this year, Jacobus Boers and I have been talking about a subject that we both thought would make an excellent topic for one of our Thursday evening IIF discussions: American Competitiveness. There were two things that led us to this conclusion. First was the publication of Tom Friedman's latest book, The World is Flat; the paperback edition, which contains some new material, came out recently. Second was the presentation to Congress last fall of a report from the National Academy of Sciences, "Rising Above the Gathering Storm," prepared by a committee of scientists, academic leaders, and business executives. "It is the unanimous view of our committee," testified one member, "that America today faces a serious and intensifying challenge with regard to its future competitiveness and standard of living. Further, we appear to be on a losing path."

Since the group decided to postpone our discussion on the Mexican presidential election until July 13, so that former Mexican Consul Teodoro Maus would be able to join us as our guest, this presented the perfect opportunity to have the discussion that Jacobus and I had planned about American competitiveness. That will take place this coming Thursday, July 6, and Jacobus will be our moderator.

In case you need some reading material for the long holiday weekend, here are some items that deal with Friedman's book and the National Academy's report:
From The New York Times Magazine, here is an article by Tom Friedman that came out at the time his book was published:
It's a Flat World, After All by Thomas L. Friedman

From the free online encyclopedia Wikipedia, here is a compilation of quotes from the book:
The World is Flat

And here is web site where Sabrina DeJoannis told me you can find a "Cliff's Notes" version of the book:
www.latech.edu/coes/assets/flat_world.pptIf the link doesn't work, type World is Flat Engineering in the Google search field and this is the first hit.
Here is the executive summary of the National Academy's report:
Rising Above the Gathering Storm - Executive Summary

Here is the Congressional testimony of some of the members of the committee that prepared the report:
The National Academies Testimony before Congress

This article originally appeared in the journal Physics Today:
'Gathering Storm' Report Urges Strong Federal Action to Save US Science and Technology Leadership
'Rising Above the Gathering Storm'

Tom Friedman discussed his reaction to the report in this article:
Facts and Folly by Thomas L. Friedman

Finally, here is a point of view from an Indian newspaper, The Financial Express:
Rising above the gathering storm

North Korea's Missile Test - (June 27, 2006)

2006-07-11T14:00:00.000-07:00

Earlier this month, North Korea announced plans for the test launch of a long range ballistic missile, the Taepodong-2. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice stated that launching such a missile would be a "provocative act" and warned North Korea to refrain from doing so. South Korea, Japan, Russia, and China have all expressed concern, as well. The Administration has had no shortage of advice about how to react to the situation: from a call by former Clinton Administration officials to launch a preemptive attack and destroy the missile at on the launching pad, to counsel from former Bush Administration officials to take a cautious approach and rely on diplomacy; from suggestions to talk to Pyongyang, not to talk to Pyongyang, and to talk to China. This Thursday, you will have the opportunity to weigh in with your opinion, as we consider North Korea's pending missile test as the topic for our IIF discussion. Curt Coulombe, whom many of you may know from the Southern Center, will serve as our moderator.

As background, here are a number of articles on the subject, mostly editorials and op/ed pieces, that have appeared in numerous publications and web sites over the past couple of weeks:
Concerns Mount over North Korea's Ballistic Missile Testing
Going Ballistic
Grounding Kim
North Korea Flexes Its Muscles
N. Korea's missile ploy
North Korea's Incredibly Bad Idea
North Korea's Threat: Missile test would put world on high alert
North Korea Disavows Its Moratorium on Testing of Long-Range Missiles
Right Where He Wants Us
Missile Defense Test
Shoot It Down
Tested by North Korea
To deal with North Korea, talk with China
North Korea's missile
North Korea: dumb and dumber
If Necessary, Strike and Destroy
No, Don't Blow It Up
U.S. Rejects Suggestion to Strike N. Korea Before It Fires Missile
North Korea and the 'destabilizing' missile defense
North Korean Diplomatic Strategy Mirrors Iran's
Don't Shoot. We're Not Ready
Leaders of Senate Panel Urge U.S. Talks With North Korea
It's Time To Talk to Pyongyang
China Urges NKorea Not to Test Missile
We hope you will join us at Villa for a lively discussion of a subject that should be of major concern to all Americans.

What is Terrorism? (June 22, 2006)

2006-06-22T07:25:00.000-07:00

The subject of our IIF discussion this Thursday will be "What is a terrorist?" and we will attempt to come up with a workable definition of terrorism. Ginnie Sams will be our moderator.

Here are a few background items:
These two articles from the free online encyclopedia Wikipedia provide a good starting point:
Definition of Terrorism
Terrorism
The second of these contains links to numerous articles on the subject.

Here is an interesting Backgrounder from the Council on Foreign Relations:
Terrorist Groups and Political Legitimacy

Finally, here are several articles from different points of view that relate to our subject:
Which War is it Anyway?
When Teaching the Ethics of War Is Not Academic
"One Man's Terrorist Is Another Man's Freedom Fighter"
One man's terrorist is another man's freedom fighter
Is One Man's Terrorist Really Another Man's Freedom Fighter?
If It Looks Like a Duck, Walks Like a Duck, and Quacks Like a Duck ...It's a Duck
One Man's Terrorist Is The Next Man's Terrorist Too
Rant: One Man's Terrorist Is Another Man's Freedom Fighter
Is it terrorism or freedom fighting?
If any of you would like the e-mails I have sent out to the group when we have discussed the subject of terrorism in the past, let me know and I will forward those to you.

Darfur: Rebel Negotiations (June 15, 2006)

2006-06-22T07:22:00.000-07:00

The conflict in Sudan's large arid western region of Darfur began at the beginning of 2003. Just as one of Africa's longest standing civil wars reached a mediated settlement in the south, rebel movements grew out of the grievances of African tribes in the west. In the summer of 2004 Colin Powell and the US Congress both labeled the government's retaliation as "genocide," but the United Nations has not. By early 2006 estimates for the number of deaths are above 400,000 and there is a large number of refugees.

Much of what has been written lately about Darfur has dealt with the role of the two rebel groups, the Sudan Liberation Army (SLA) and the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM), and their intransigence in negotiations to end the conflict. This has stirred up quite a bit of controversy, and since it will likely be a large part of this week's IIF discussion on Darfur, Charles Hubert shared the following additional information about this aspect of the situation:

To begin with, here is an item about the two rebel groups from BBC News:
Who Are Sudan's Darfur Rebels?

Here are two somewhat controversial articles that appeared in the Guardian of London in early May when negotiations were coming to an end:
Careless talk costs lives
One-sided reporting that is delaying an end to the killing

The controversy accelerated with the publication of this article by Alan Kuperman in The New York Times:
Strategic Victimhood in Sudan

Nicholas Kristof, the columnist for The New York Times who has written frequently about Darfur, was quick to respond on his blog:
Kristof Responds

This response came from the blog A Newer World:
Spinning Darfur

And these two from the Coalition for Darfur blog:
Darfur: Theory vs. Reality
Darfur: Who Started It?

And this article was published in the Sudan Tribune:
Strategic Victimhood in Sudan - A Response

From The New York Review of Books, here is a review, written by Nicholas Kristof, of two recent books on Sudan, Darfur: A Short History of a Long War, and Darfur: The Ambiguous Genocide:
Genocide in Slow Motion

Finally, no discussion of this type would be complete without some reference to this thought-provoking article by Edward N. Luttwak that originally appeared in Foreign Affairs seven years ago:
Give War a Chance

Since this topic has come up frequently, below is an archive of articles and other content throughout the tenure of the crisis.
Key Articles
A Darfur "Crash-Course", this was compiled from a series of blogs by the most prolific writer on this conflict Eric Reeves, The New Republic, 7/18/05
Dying in Darfur, by Samantha Power, The New Yorker, 8/30/04
Articles etc
Darfur's despair, The Economist, 10/13/05
U.S. Blocks U.N. Briefing on Atrocities in Sudan, Reuters, 10/10/05
Activists Call for More Help in Violent Darfur, NPR, 10/7/05
Crisis in Sudan, audio, interviews of Sudan's Ambassador to the US and a State Department official, PBS NewsHour with Jim Lehrer, 10/5/05
Genocide, One Year On, The Washington Post, 9/14/05
U.S. Support for U.N. Genocide Measure Urged, NPR, 8/25/05
An Argument Against NATO Entering Darfur, NPR, 8/23/05
Wesley Clark: NATO Forces Needed in Darfur, NPR, 8/22/05
The death of southern Sudan's leader, John Garang, The Economist, 8/4/05
American Foreign Policy and Amnesia: The Case of Iraq, 1hr audio, Samantha Power's talk at the University of Chicago, 5/13/04
Do Something...But What?, Mother Jones, 5/4/05
Darfur's Real Death Toll, Editorial, Washington Post, 4/24/05
Lengthening the arm of global law, The Economist, 4/7/05
Remember Rwanda, but Take Action in Sudan, by Samantha Power, New York Times, 4/6/05
Mild rebukes for Darfur's killers, The Economist, 3/31/05
Justice in Darfur, The Economist, 2/3/05
Darfur Report, audio/video/text, PBS NewsHour with Jim Lehrer,2/2/05
Report of the International Commission of Inquiry on Darfur, 1/25/05
Killing Conflict, audio/video/text, PBS NewsHour with Jim Lehrer,1/14/05
Sudan: A Nation on the Brink , transcript, Great Decisions 2005 TV
Darfur Will Not Be Saved By Words Alone, John Prendergast's commentary, Wall Street Journal Europe, 8/30/04
The Darfur Conflict, Economist, 8/30/04
Dying in Darfur, audio/video/text, PBS NewsHour with Jim Lehrer,8/26/04
Darfur Deadline: A New International Action Plan, International Crisis Group, 8/23/04
It's Happening Again, by Senators John McCain and Mike DeWine, Washington Post, 6/23/04
Refugee Crisis, audio/video/text, PBS NewsHour with Jim Lehrer,5/13/04
Crisis in Sudan, audio/video/text, PBS NewsHour with Jim Lehrer,6/24/04
Magboula's Brush With Genocide, by Nicholas Kristof , New York Times, 6/23/04
As Genocide Unfolds, Editorial, Washington Post, 6/20/04
Sudan's Final Solution, by Nicholas Kristof, New York Times, 6/19/04
Dare We Call It Genocide?, Op-ed by Nicholas Kristof, New York Times, 6/16/04
White House reconsiders its policy on crisis in Sudan, New York Times, 6/12/04
Peace and spreading war in Sudan, Economist, 5/27/04
War and Peace in Sudan, Economist, 5/27/04
Sudan: Now or Never in Darfur, International Crisis Group, 5/23/04
Refugee Crisis in Sudan, text/audio/video, NewsHour with Jim Lehrer, 5/13/04
Fleeing the horsemen who kill for Khartoum, Economist, 5/13/04
End the latest war in Sudan, Economist, 5/13/04
The crisis in Sudan's Darfur region, Economist, 5/7/04
Sudan: Darfur Destroyed, Human Rights Watch, 5/04
'Hotel Rwanda' Forces a Look At Mass Murder, Wall Street Journal, 02-25-05
10,000 Peacekeepers Sought by U.S. for Southern Sudan, New York Times, 2/15/05
Playing Politics With Genocide, Wall Street Journal, 02-03-05
Sudan Bait and Switch, Wall Street Journal, 02-03-05
Both Sides of Conflict in Darfur Dispute Findings in U.N. Report, New York Times, 2/2/05
U.N. Finds Crimes, Not Genocide in Darfur, New York Times, 2/1/05
U.N. Panel Urges Prosecution Of Sudan in ICC, Wall Street Journal, 02-01-05
U.S. Floats Plan for Its Own Tribunal to Address Sudan Violence, Wall Street Journal, 01-28-04
Washington's Darfur Dilemma, Wall Street Journal, 01-17-04
Hold the Praise for Sudan, Wall Street Journal, 01-11-04
Sudan's Two Wars, Economist, 2/8/04
Conversations with History: A Problem From Hell , 1hr video interview at UC Berkeley featuring her Pulitzer Prize winning book "A Problem From Hell: America in the Age of Genocide", 4/29/02
Bystanders To Genocide, Famous article by Samantha Power about the Rwandan genocide, The Atlantic Monthly, 9/01
Reference Material
History, Government, Politics and Economy of Sudan, US State Department, 1/06
Sudan, Wikipedia
Darfur conflict, Wikipedia
Country Profile: Sudan, BBC
Web Sites
Human Rights Watch reports, videos, news releases
International Crisis Group, includes a brief overview and recent situation reports
Genocide Watch, kept up to date with good news stories and op/ed pieces about Darfur
UN Sudan Information Gateway
Passion of the Present, a blog
Sudan Research, Analysis, and Advocacy, web site of Eric Reeves

Dedicated Coverage
Yahoo! News - Full Coverage: Sudan
BBC In Depth: Sudan
The Guardian Special Report: Sudan
The Washington Post: Sudan
Sudan Backgrounder, Economist

'Intel' Issues: The new CIA chief, NSA wiretapping and others (June 8, 2006)

2006-06-22T07:18:00.000-07:00

The topic for our IIF discussion this Thursday will be U.S. Intelligence Issues. Some of the subjects that will be covered are the resignation of CIA Director Porter J. Goss and his replacement by Gen. Michael V. Hayden, and the NSA's warrantless wiretapping program. Our discussion will be led by one of our regulars, Jason DeJoannis.

As usual, I am sending along some background information:
From the free online encyclopedia Wikipedia, here are biographies of the new CIA Director and the man he replaced:
Michael V. Hayden
Porter J. Goss

Here is an article about Hayden from Time:
Thinker, Briefer, Soldier, Spy

Here is the original article from the New York Times that broke the story about the NSA's warrantless wiretap program:
Bush Lets U.S. Spy on Callers Without Courts

Here is the press briefing about the NSA program:
Press Briefing by Attorney General Alberto Gonzales and General Michael Hayden, Principal Deputy Director for National Intelligence 12-19-05

Here is a Congressional Research Service memorandum about the program:
Presidential Authority to Conduct Warrantless Electronic Surveillance to Gather Foreign Intelligence Information 01-05-06

Here is a letter from a group of law professors and former government officials challenging the constitutionality of the NSA program:
Response to the Justice Department from Law Professors and Former Government Officials, January 9, 2006

Here is a letter sent by the Chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, Pat Roberts, to the Chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, Arlen Specter, supporting the constitutionality of the NSA program:
Sen. Pat Roberts on the Constitutionality of Warrantless Electronic Surveillance: letter to the Senate Judiciary Committee, February 3, 2006

Finally, here is an editorial in favor of the NSA program that originally appeared in The Wall Street Journal:
The Wisdom in Wiretaps

Israel/Palestine Conflict (Redux Discussion Topic - June 1, 2006)

2006-05-27T14:10:00.000-07:00

There was so much left to say that IIF will again discuss the Israel/Palestine Conflict. Many members felt the May 4, 2006 discussion left much still to be explored on this topic. This post will be updated with relevant background articles as soon as they are available.

Nepal - Turmoil at the Top of the World (Discussion Topic - May 25, 2006)

2006-05-27T14:03:00.000-07:00

IIF Discussion will center on Nepal and its difficulties in the transition of power. Here are some background articles:
This Backgrounder from The Economist provides an excellent summary of Nepal's recent history:
Backgrounder: Nepal
Also from The Economist, here are a series of stories that have run from the beginning of the current crisis to the present:
Chaos on the roof of the world
Feudal follies
What's the plan, Gyan?
Himalayan horrors
The king's new clothes
Crowning folly
Heat on the king
Shooting the messengers
Three into two
The ballot and the bullet
A hollow bid to cling to power
Off his head
Days of rage
The endgame
An end to violence at the top of the world?
Knights and pawns check king
Here is a link to an item I found extremely helpful, the executive summary and recommendations of the most recent report on Nepal from the International Crisis Group (which also contains a link to the full report in either PDF or WORD format):
Nepal: From People Power to Peace?

This Viewpoint by Leon J. Weil, former U.S. Ambassador to Nepal, from the Foreign Policy Association's web site was later published in shortened form in The Wall Street Journal:
Viewpoints: Nepal in Crisis: Why Americans Should Care

And here are two more opinion pieces that ran in The Wall Street Journal at different stages of the crisis:
Commentary: Nepal's Crisis
Commentary: Nepal's Honeymoon

Here are a pair of articles, the second an update of the first, that originally appeared in Foreign Affairs:
Nepal at the Precipice
My Kingdom for Some Peace

Here is an overview of the situation in Nepal from Human Rights Watch:
Human Rights Overview: Nepal

From the free online encyclopedia Wikipedia, here are reports on Nepal's King Gyanendra and the recent conflict:
King Gyanendra of Nepal
2006 Democracy Movement in Nepal

The Washington Post ran this article on the King:
Nepal's Embattled King a Study in Aloofness

Finally, this article from CNN deals with prospects for the future in Nepal:
Nepal: Now for the hard part

Latin American Elections - Leaning to the Left (Discussion Topic - May 11, 2006)

2006-05-27T13:37:00.000-07:00

IIF Discussion: "Elections and Trends in South America"; guest moderator: Myriam Quispe-Agnoli, economic analyst for the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta specializing in South America, and a frequent guest of our group.

Israel/Palestine Conflict (Discussion Topic - May 4, 2006)

2006-05-27T13:23:00.000-07:00

IIF Discussion: "The Israeli/Palestinian Conflict: The Elections Are Over; What Now?"; guest moderator: The Hon. John H. Kelly, formerly U.S. Ambassador to Lebanon and Assistant Secretary of State for the Near East and South Asia.